The Impact of Late Planting on U.S. Average Corn Yield

A perennial question in the corn market is how much does late planting hurt yield. This is just the flip-side of the question of how much does early planting help yield. Based on recent weekly Crop Progress reports from the USDA, the 2020 U.S. corn crop is on track to be planted at an average pace. Figure 1 shows that 67 percent of corn acreage in 18 major producing states was planted as of May 11, 2020 (week #19), one percentage point higher that the 5-year average for this week. By comparison, only 30 percent of the crop in 2019 was planted as of this date due to exceptionally wet conditions. The extreme lateness of planting the 2019 corn crop represents a valuable data point to help estimate the impact of late planting on corn yields. The purpose of this article is estimate the impact of late planting on the U.S. average corn yield over 1980-2019 using three different approaches and compare the estimates for consistency. We also discuss implications for projecting the U.S. average corn yield in 2020.