In this article, we update our earlier estimates of total crop acreage for the U.S. through 2025. The only change is that we no longer account for all acreage in the Conservation Reserve Program (CRP). The vast majority of acreage in the grassland CRP is rangeland that has not been cropped for an extended period of time, if ever. After making this change, total acreage declines from 356.7 million in 2014 to a low of 328.6 million projected for 2025, a decline of 28 million acres, or 7.8%.

A common headline is “High Crop Production Costs.” But, are costs high? To address a “high” question, a benchmark is needed. A common benchmark is history. We therefore examine cost in historical context. Once general US inflation and farmer adjustment strategies of yield growth and crop mix changes are taken into account, cost has changed little over the last 40 years. This finding underscores the importance of inflation and farmer adjustment strategies when considering crop costs.

The USDA’s harvest season estimates were for 2024 US corn and soybean yields to be above trend because of good to excellent conditions throughout most of the growing season. Those yield estimates were revised down following the 2024 harvest season, with final U.S. yields coming in slightly below trend for both corn and soybeans. While early yield estimates for Illinois were also revised down, 2024 corn and soybean yields ended above trend.

Does high corn acreage necessarily reduces average yields through the inclusion of fringe acres? Historical data show no significant correlation between planted acreage and yields, suggesting that large corn plantings predicted for 2025 can coexist with record yields, potentially maintaining bearish price pressure.

The median operating expense ratios for Illinois grain farms have increased significantly in recent years across all farm sizes, reflecting a deterioration in financial efficiency. While large farms generally report higher median ratios, the distribution of their reported ratios exhibits less variability than those of smaller operations. Along with declining incomes, rising input costs — such as pesticides, seed, fertilizer, and labor — have contributed to the recent upward trend since 2021.

A tendency to miss the bigger or more complete picture because of an overemphasis on smaller details is an infinitely adaptable and applicable concept. A particularly intriguing application is understanding adaptation to change in complex systems with challenging interdependencies. Another matter to which the old idiom resonates is the challenge of managing cover crops. We put it to work here to kick off a series of articles exploring the learning curve for this critical conservation practice.