The early market response to the Hormuz disruption points to a concentrated rather than broad-based risk for U.S. agriculture. Energy markets reacted most sharply, but in fertilizer markets the strongest response has so far been concentrated in nitrogen products, especially urea, where prices rose by more than 28% within three weeks. Historical experience suggests the current effects may still be in an early phase. Fertilizer prices often continue to rise for several months after the initial disruption.

Net worth is calculated as total assets minus total liabilities. Liabilities represent claims on your assets by creditors. Net worth, therefore, represents the portion of the business that you own. Long-term net worth as a percentage of total net worth ranged from a high of 58% in 2015, 2016 and 2017 to a low of 40% in 2007. Rising land values have contributed to this component being above 50%. While long-term debt has also increased over time, land values have grown at a faster rate.

Tax credits have been crucial to staving off an even larger wave of FAME biodiesel plant shutdowns in recent months. Without tax credit revenue, the market would have signaled that biodiesel plants shut down production every single week since the beginning of 2025. Looking ahead, this situation raises the stakes even higher for the upcoming EPA final rulemaking on Renewable Volume Obligations (RVOs) for 2026 and 2027. Strong RVO mandates for biomass-based diesel would provide crucial additional revenue.

The current conflict in the Middle East has increased the prices of energy and fertilizers. Impacts on corn and soybean prices are more difficult to determine. Here, we examine price movements since the start of airstrikes from the US and Israel on February 28. The overall impact on costs will depend on the length of the conflict. While many inputs for 2026 have already been purchased, profitability prospects for this year are likely reduced. Cost increases could also be felt in future years.

Brazil is heading toward another record soybean harvest in 2025-26, driven by expanded acreage and favorable yields in the country’s main producing regions. However, unlike previous seasons, when record harvests were often associated with strong profitability, this year’s crop is happening in a much more challenging economic environment. Lower soybean prices, elevated production costs, and weaker export premiums have compressed margins for Brazilian farmers – pushing profitability to its lowest level in nearly two decades and close to breakeven.

The Projected Prices (PPs) for corn and soybeans for 2026 were recently released by the Risk Management Agency (RMA).  Settlement prices for the December corn and November soybean futures contracts…