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The 2025 Farm Bill What-If Tool

January 28, 2025

Nick Paulson, Gary Schnitkey, Ryan Batts, and Carl Zulauf

Farmers have until April 15 to make or change decisions regarding commodity program support, a month longer than in recent years. The farmdoc 2025 Farm Bill What-if Tool has been revised to analyze the 2025 decisions. Overall, ARC at the county level (ARC-CO) appears to be the program choice most likely to result in the largest payments for corn, soybean, and wheat base acres. At very low prices, however, PLC will make higher payments, particularly for corn and wheat.

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Biomass-Based Diesel: It’s Still All About the Policy

January 22, 2025

Maria Gerveni and Scott Irwin

There is considerable uncertainty about the outlook for biofuels with the changeover of administrations in Washington, D.C. As one example of the uncertainty, the outgoing Biden Administration earlier this month…

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U.S. Agricultural Trade Background Given Potential Tariffs

January 21, 2025

Joana Colussi, Gary Schnitkey, Nick Paulson, and Carl Zulauf

Agricultural trade is again coming under more focus as President Trump comes into office. The Trump administration has suggested the use of tariffs on goods coming into the United States…

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Landowner’s Adjusted Net-Share Rent as a Percent of Crop Returns

January 17, 2025

Bradley Zwilling

Over time, more farmland leases in Illinois have been shifting from traditional crop share leases to cash leases. In addition, there has been some increase in flexible or variable rent…

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Reviewing Public Support for Payments to Farmers

January 16, 2025

Jonathan Coppess, Maria Kalaitzandonakes, and Brenna Ellison

The Gardner Food and Agricultural Policy Survey has been tracking public support for a variety of agricultural payment types for nearly three years. Results from the GFAPS show that the public is most supportive of payments following natural disasters and least supportive of payments in response to low crop prices. Interestingly, support for payments for farmers following export or trade restrictions saw an uptick in November, following the election.

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Revisiting the RIN Cliff

January 15, 2025

Maria Gerveni, Todd Hubbs, Scott Irwin, and Steven Ramsey

The U.S. biomass-based diesel (BBD) industry went over a RIN cliff in May 2023. It is clear in hindsight that the boom in BBD capacity and production in the U.S., largely associated with renewable diesel, was simply too much too soon relative to the demand ceiling implied by the RFS mandates. The good news is that there may be light at the end of the tunnel for BBD producers. Recent data show that BBD supply is now better balanced with the demand ceiling.

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Revised 2025 Crop Budgets

January 14, 2025

Nick Paulson, Gary Schnitkey, Bradley Zwilling, and Carl Zulauf

Illinois crop budgets for 2025 have been revised from their initial release in September. Based on recent futures market activity, the 2025 corn price has been increased to $4.30 per bushel while the soybean price has been reduced to $10.20. This marginally improves projected corn returns, while projected soybean returns have declined slightly. Return projections remain negative for corn and soybeans across all regions of Illinois for 2025.

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The 2025 Farm Bill What-If Tool

Recent Articles - View All

Biomass-Based Diesel: It’s Still All About the Policy

U.S. Agricultural Trade Background Given Potential Tariffs

Landowner’s Adjusted Net-Share Rent as a Percent of Crop Returns

Reviewing Public Support for Payments to Farmers

Revisiting the RIN Cliff

Revised 2025 Crop Budgets

Recent Series

Ag Market Insights

Corn Exports: Rocket Ship to Where?

A Breath of Optimism for Corn in a Down Market

Post-Harvest Grain Marketing in a Low-Price Environment

Insights for Supply, Ending Stocks, and Prices from FSA Acreage Data

The Range of New-Crop Price Expectations Is Narrowing Early

Weekly Farm Economics

U.S. Agricultural Trade Background Given Potential Tariffs

Revised 2025 Crop Budgets

Impacts of Economic Assistance Payments

Update on Historic Use of Crop Insurance Products in Illinois

Machinery Costs on Illinois Grain Farms

Gardner Policy Series

Reviewing Public Support for Payments to Farmers

Impacts of Economic Assistance Payments

A Mid-December Look at 2024 Crop Safety Net Payments

The Importance of Food Prices in 2024 Election: Results from the Gardner Food & Agricultural Policy Survey

MultiCrop Insurance

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