June 18, 2013
Prevented Planting Payments versus Planting SoybeansListen to MP3 podcast
Soybean planting has been delayed in many areas of the Midwest. Since final planting dates for corn have passed, farmers who have purchased the COMBO insurance policy are eligible to take prevented planting payments for corn. Soon all final planting dates for soybeans will have passed and all Midwestern farmers will be eligible for soybean prevented planting payments. In this post, returns from prevented planting payments are compared to planting soybeans. For corn, prevented planting payments almost always will be larger than expected returns from planting soybeans in late June. Prevented planting payments for soybeans are less than prevented planting payments for corn. Taking the prevented planting payments for soybeans will become more economically attractive if soybean plantings are further delayed.
June 17, 2013
Anticipating the USDA June Stocks and Acreage ReportsListen to MP3 podcast
On June 28, the USDA will release the June I Grain Stocks and June Acreage reports that will set the tone for both old and new crop corn and soybean prices. These reports have the potential to provide large surprises.
June 14, 2013
An Updated Look at the Profitability of Ethanol ProductionIt is no surprise to readers of farmdoc daily that ethanol production has played a major role in the grain price boom since 2006. Increasing ethanol production has been driven by a combination of market incentives and biofuels polices. Given the prominence of ethanol production it is important to track the profitability of the industry in order to assess likely ethanol production trends and potential impacts on grain market supply, demand, and prices.
June 13, 2013
Release of Revenue and Costs for Corn, Soybeans, Wheat, and Double-Crop SoybeansThe publication entitled "Revenue and Costs for Corn, Soybeans, Wheat, and Double-Crop Soybeans" has been revised and is available on farmdoc. Revisions from the last publication includes an update of 2012 results and an updated to projections for 2013.
June 12, 2013
What Combination of Corn and RINs Prices Makes E85 Competitive?In a post last week, we provided an analysis of the price of corn that could result in retail E85 prices being breakeven with E10 prices based on the relative energy value of the two fuels. In that analysis, the price of ethanol was assumed to be at a level that would allow ethanol producers to cover all costs of production for a given price of corn.
June 11, 2013
Farm Program Payments under Alternative ProposalsCommodity program payments under alternative House and Senate proposals are estimated for corn produced in McLean County, Illinois. Payments are estimated for 2013 through 2016 given average yields for three price scenarios: 1) a $4.50 Market Year Average (MYA) price for each year from 2013 through 2016, 2) a $4.00 MYA price, and 3) a $3.50 MYA price. Under all price scenarios, the Average Crop Revenue Election (ACRE) program has higher payments than commodity programs proposed by the Senate and House Agriculture Committees.
June 10, 2013
Difficult to Anticipate Corn ProductionListen to MP3 podcast
The corn market appears to be having difficulty anticipating the likely size of the 2013 U.S. crop. Over the past three weeks, December 2013 corn futures have traded from a low of $5.12 to a high of $5.735 as production expectations continue to unfold.