October 17, 2017

Expectations for Corn and Soybean Prices over the Next Five Years

Many farm decisions are aided by having longer-run projections of corn and soybean prices. For example, determining the appropriate level of cash rents is aided by price projections. In this article, several longer-termed projections are presented. For the 2017 marketing year, these sources suggest that a corn price below or near $3.50 is appropriate to use in budgets. The sources suggest that prices near or above $3.50 are realistic for the 2018 and 2019 marketing years. For soybeans, the projections suggest a price in the low to mid-$9 range for the 2017 marketing year. Using mid to high-$9 prices in the 2018 and 2019 marketing years appear realistic.

  • Authors: Gary Schnitkey and Todd Hubbs
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October 16, 2017

Weekly Outlook: Moving Forward after the October Reports in Corn and Soybeans

The release of USDA's October reports created a rally in soybean prices that pushed November soybean futures prices to levels not seen since the end of July. Corn prices saw a much more muted response. The question is will the soybean rally consolidate as we move forward. Corn prices appear to contain a limited capability to generate upward price movements in the near term.

October 13, 2017

Comparison of 2016 ARC-CO and PLC Payments

The daily article from October 6, 2017 presents a summary of 2016 ARC-CO payments for corn, soybeans, and wheat. Today's article provides county level estimates of PLC payments for these crops using average program yield data provided by the Farm Service Agency (FSA). We also compare payment levels across the ARC-CO and PLC programs for the 2016 year.

  • Authors: Nick Paulson, Gary Schnitkey, Jonathan Coppess, and Carl Zulauf
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October 12, 2017

The Other General Waiver: RFS and Severe Economic Harm

As discussed last week, the Environmental Protection Agency is soliciting data and feedback on the biomass-based diesel and advanced biofuels components of the Renewable Fuels Standard, including the general waiver authority. The Notice of Data Availability also included a request for data and comment on the other general waiver provision regarding severe economic harm. This article reviews that aspect of the general waiver authority.

  • Authors: Jonathan Coppess and Scott Irwin
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October 11, 2017

U.S. Farm Sector Capital Expenditures

U.S. farm sector capital expenditures continue to adjust to declines in net farm income and net cash income since 2013. Real net farm income has declined approximately 51 percent since its most recent peak in 2013, while real net cash income has declined approximately 29 percent since its most recent peak in 2012. Similar to past periods of declining margins, U.S. farms have responded to the declines in income by reducing capital expenditures. This article examines trends in capital expenditures and compares capital expenditures to capital consumption (i.e., economic depreciation).