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March 26, 2015

Forming Expectations for the 2015 U.S. Average Winter Wheat Yield: What Does History Teach Us?

The USDA's January 12, 2015 Winter Wheat Seedings report indicated that 40.452 million acres of winter wheat were seeded last fall. That is 1.947 million fewer acres seeded in the previous fall and 2.778 million fewer acres than seeded in the fall of 2012. The size of the 2015 winter wheat crop will depend on the magnitude of harvested acres and the average yield. Updated forecasts of seeded acreage will be revealed in USDA's March 31 Prospective Plantings report. The USDA's May 12 Crop Production report will reveal expected harvested acreage, yield, and production.

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Posted by Scott Irwin and Darrel Good   Permalink  

March 25, 2015

Paying for Someone Else's Pricing Mistakes

Prices obtained, or "discovered," through active negotiations between buyers and sellers are considered to be the fairest for both parties, because they provide the highest selling price and the lowest buying price at any particular point in time. However, the negotiation process can require a substantial investment in time and effort. For this reason, many producers have abandoned negotiated prices and instead rely on other people's transactions to determine the price for a purchase or sale.

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Posted by Paul Peterson   Permalink  

March 24, 2015

Program Choice under the 2014 Farm Bill with all Available Price and Yield Information

March 31 is the deadline for all 2014 Farm Bill decisions. This article provides expected payment estimates using the most up-to-date yield and market data. This information is available in the Agricultural Price Analysis System (APAS).

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Posted by Gary Schnitkey, Jonathan Coppess, Nick Paulson, and Carl Zulauf   Permalink  

March 23, 2015

New Milestone for farmdoc daily: 1,000 Articles and Counting

Please join us in celebrating another farmdoc daily milestone. Today's article is the 1,000th since we started publishing in March 2011. Four years ago the farmdoc team committed to the unprecedented, and more than a little audacious, goal of publishing one original article of research-based analysis and information each business day. We are, of course, proud to have accomplished this goal, but we are even prouder that we met the goal while maintaining high standards for timeliness, relevance, and rigor. We know that the quality of articles, and not the quantity, is the reason why farmdoc daily has earned a place on the "must read" list of literally hundreds of thousands of farmers, lenders, educators, journalists, traders, market analysts, and policy-makers around the world

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Posted by Scott Irwin   Permalink  

March 1 Soybean Stocks Estimate to Be Overshadowed by Planting Intentions?

The USDA's estimate of December 1, 2014 stocks of U.S. soybeans was surprisingly small. Based on the estimated size of the 2014 crop and estimates of exports and domestic crush during the previous quarter, the stocks estimate implied a record large residual use of soybeans during the first quarter (September-November) of the 2014-15 marketing year.

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Posted by Darrel Good   Permalink