U.S. Hay Market over the Last 100 Years
Hay is the 3rd largest U.S. crop in terms of harvest acres. It also provides environmental services, notably erosion control. Understanding the U.S. hay market is therefore important for both…
2018 World Soybean Trade: Aberrations from Recent Trends
Soybeans are one of the products at the center of President Trump’s use of tariffs to impact trade policy. China has imposed a 25% counter-tariff on US soybeans. It buys…
U.S. Share of World Economic Growth: Implications for U.S. Trade Policy
An overlooked question in the debate over President Trump’s trade policy is “Why has the U.S. reversed long-standing positions on free trade?” It is important to ponder this question, especially…
Gardner Policy Series
U.S. Corn, Soybean, Wheat Exports and USSR Grain Embargo: Contemporary Implications
With the implementation of tariffs taking effect, President Donald Trump’s trade policy has roiled commodity markets. Tariffs have been imposed on U.S. imports, triggering counter-tariffs on U.S. exports with ag…
Interest Rates in 30-Year Perspective: The Case of U.S. 10-Year Treasury Rates
On Wednesday, June 13, 2018, the Federal Reserve increased the Federal funds rate for the 2nd time in 2018 and 7th time since December 2015. It also signaled that 2…
Weekly Outlook
Acreage Prospects for 2018
Corn and soybean prices have weathered the USDA's November Crop Production report that contained larger forecasts of the size of the 2017 harvest, relative to market expectations, for both crops.…
Weekly Outlook
Soybean Export Prospects for 2017-18
U.S. soybean exports will play a significant role in determining soybean prices this marketing year. The recent level of soybean exports from the United States trails last year's pace. The…
Weekly Outlook
Corn and Soybean Exports Update
While market observers focus on the changing outlook for corn and soybean yields brought on by the shift in weather patterns over the last few weeks, export markets continue to…
Gardner Policy Series
Spanning the Globe — Importance of Yield to Expanding U.S. Corn, Soybean, and Wheat Exports
Worldwide demand for agricultural products will likely grow as higher incomes change diets around the world, especially in developing countries. Much of the ensuing increase in production will come from…
The Role of Weather in the Pattern of Corn Prices over Time
In the farmdoc daily article of June 7, 2017, we examined the long-term pattern of corn prices during the era spanning from 1973 through November 2006 and the new era…
Are There Predictable Crop Price Cycles?
The downturn in crop prices that began in mid- to late-2014 and continues today has led to declining farm income and downward pressure on farmland values and rents. The financial…
Spanning the Globe – Corn, Soybean, and Wheat Production and Exports since 2000: Focus on the Black Sea Area and the U.S.
South America dominates the U.S. view of agricultural production in the rest of the world, in part because it has supplanted the U.S. as the leading producer of soybeans. Such…
What to expect from the next USDA Prospective Plantings Report?
USDA will release the next Prospective Plantings report on March 31, 2017. This report will contain survey-based estimates of producer planting intentions for all major US crops and will provide…
Using the Soybean-to-Corn Price Ratio to Predict Corn and Soybean March Planting Intentions
The magnitude of U.S. planted acreage of corn and soybeans will be important in determining prices for both crops during the 2017-18 marketing year. Projections of planted acreage are currently…
IFES 2016: Long-Term Weather and Prospects for a Recovery in Corn Prices
Corn and other grain prices have declined sharply since 2013 and have recently been as low as $3 per bushel on a monthly average basis for the state of Illinois.…
US Corn Ethanol Market: Understanding the Past to Assess the Future
Ethanol was a factor in both the price run-up that began in 2006 and the price run-down that began in 2013. Tepid growth replaced explosive growth. The question for the…
Soybeans, China, and the Rest of the World: Changing of the Guard?
Strong import demand is largely credited with soybean's relatively high current price, especially in the face of a US soybean yield that currently is a record by 3.4 bushels per…
An Agrarian Take on US Economic Malaise
Understanding the current era of US economic malaise lies, at least in part, with the most basic of American enterprises - the production and marketing of food.
Weekly Outlook
Corn and Soybean Storage
The current USDA projections indicate that U.S. corn and soybean supplies will be record large for the 2016-17 marketing year that begins on September 1. The corn supply (production, carryover…
New Corn and Soybean Pricing Models and World Stocks-to-Use Ratios
In a series of recent farmdoc daily articles we offered a new specification for the relationship between the marketing year ending stocks-to-use ratio and the marketing year average farm price…
Sensitivity Analysis of New Corn and Soybean Pricing Models
In the farmdoc daily article of April 6, 2016 we offered a new specification for the relationship between the marketing year ending stocks-to-use ratio and the marketing year average farm…
The New Era of Corn and Soybean Prices Is Still Alive and Kicking
There is no shortage of doom and gloom about grain price prospects at the present time. Prices have indeed fallen to quite low levels compared to the high prices that…
Forming Corn and Soybean Price Expectations for 2016-17
In the farmdoc daily article of April 6, 2016 we offered a new specification for the relationship between the marketing year ending stocks-to-use ratio and the marketing year average farm…
The Relationship between Stocks-to-Use and Corn and Soybean Prices: An Alternative View
The release of the USDA's Prospective Plantings report provides the first survey-based information for forming expectations about the size of the 2016 corn and soybean crops. Production expectations can now…
Examining Factors Affecting Long Term Corn and Soybean Prices
The recent decline in farm prices have underscored a question that has existed throughout the recent period of higher prices, has a new era of farm prices emerged? An excellent…