2018 Third Quarter RIN Update
Today’s post provides the third quarterly update on RIN generation for 2018. Generation figures and projections are based on available data from EPA’s EMTS through September of 2018, with annual…
EPA 2019 RFS Proposed Rulemaking: What You See Is Not What You Get
On June 26, 2018, the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) published its proposed rule for establishing the volume obligations under the Renewable Fuels Standard (RFS) (EPA Proposed Rule). If finalized, the…
Deal-Making on the RFS: Follow the North Star
With a flurry of negotiations and political conflict, the Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS) squeezed its way into the national news cycles of recent weeks. The key issue for negotiations is…
The Grand Bargain? Trading an E15 RVP Waiver for a RINs Price Cap
Discussions about the future of the RFS reached a fever pitch this week. A high-level meeting at the White House was held, with President Trump presiding and Senators from Iowa…
How Much Will the Cost of a RINs Bundle Decline if the Conventional Ethanol Gap Disappears?
In a farmdoc daily article last week, we showed how high D6 RINs prices can be directly traced to conventional ethanol mandates that exceed the E10 blend wall, creating a…
Fixing the RFS is Getting Easier and Easier
There has been no shortage of ideas in recent months about how to "fix" the Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS). These include application of the various waiver authorities under the RFS,…
Still Another Wrinkle in the RFS: A RINs Price Cap
New ideas about how to "fix" the Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS) seem to appear weekly. In our last farmdoc daily article from December 6, 2017 we analyzed how a seemingly…
Another Wrinkle in the RFS: The Small RefineryB Exemption
2017 has been a busy year for the Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS). In July, the D.C. Circuit rejected EPA's interpretation of its general waiver authority. In September, EPA issued a…
The Biodiesel Waiver Provision in the RFS
As discussed in the two previous articles, EPA has issued a Notice of Data Availability (NODA) seeking data and comment on potential reductions to the biomass-based diesel mandates. The third…
The Other General Waiver: RFS and Severe Economic Harm
As discussed last week, the Environmental Protection Agency is soliciting data and feedback on the biomass-based diesel and advanced biofuels components of the Renewable Fuels Standard, including the general waiver…
Gardner Policy Series
Three Little Words All Over Again: EPA Revisits Inadequate Domestic Supply
On September 26, 2017, the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) issued a Notice of Data Availability seeking comment and data on potential reductions to the 2018 biomass-based diesel (BBD), advanced biofuel,…
Projecting Biodiesel RINs Prices under Different Policies
In a farmdoc daily article last week, we developed a simple economic model to predict D4 biodiesel RINs prices based on biodiesel prices, diesel prices, and the biodiesel tax credit.…
How to Think About Biodiesel RINs Prices under Different Policies
Several recent farmdoc daily articles examined the role that biomass-based diesel (BBD) plays with respect to compliance with RFS mandates. Topics covered include: 1) the amount of BBD required to…
Upon Further Review: the Decision on EPA’s RFS Waiver Authority
On July 28, 2017, the U.S. Court of Appeals for the D.C. Circuit handed issued its decision in the lawsuit over EPA's interpretation of the Renewable Fuels Standard (RFS) and…
Biomass-Based Biodiesel Prices–How Much Does Policy Matter?
Biomass-based diesel, which includes both biodiesel and renewable diesel, plays a critical role in compliance with RFS mandates. Since 2013, biomass-based diesel (BBD) has been the "marginal gallon" for complying…
EPA Interpretation of the “Inadequate Domestic Supply” Waiver for Renewable Fuels Ruled Invalid: Where to from Here?
Three words--inadequate domestic supply--have taken center stage in the implementation of the RFS since 2014. The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) used a controversial definition of this term to reduce…
Revisiting the Estimation of Biomass-Based Diesel Supply Curves
Biomass-based diesel, which includes both biodiesel and renewable diesel, plays a critical role in compliance with RFS mandates. Since 2013, biomass-based diesel (BBD) has been the "marginal gallon" for complying…
Filling the Gaps in the Renewable Fuels Standard with Biodiesel
In the farmdoc daily article of July 12, 2017, we calculated the likely size of the "gaps" in biofuels consumption created by the EPA implementation of the Renewable Fuels Standards…
The EPA’s Renewable Fuel Standard Rulemaking for 2018 — Still a Push
The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) announced the proposed rulemaking for the Renewable Fuels Standard (RFS) for 2018 and the biomass-based diesel volume requirement for 2019 on July 5th. In…
The RFS and Domestic Consumption of Conventional Ethanol and Biomass-Based Diesel to 2022
In the farmdoc daily article of November 30, 2016, we examined the magnitude of the "push" in production and consumption of biofuels implied by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA)…
The EPA’s Renewable Fuel Standard Rulemaking for 2017 Was More Aggressive than Expected
The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) announced the final rulemaking for the Renewable Fuels Standard (RFS) for 2017 and the biomass-based diesel volume requirement for 2018 on November 23rd. In…
U.S. Gasoline Consumption: Where to From Here?
In a farmdoc daily article last week (June 2, 2016), we showed that increasing gasoline consumption in the face of falling crude oil and gasoline prices has had, and will…
The EPA’s Proposed 2017 RFS Standards: Is a Push Still a Push?
The EPA released the final rulemaking for 2014-2016 RFS standards on November 30, 2015. That final rule making reflected a change in EPA policy in that the implied mandate for…
2015 Year End RIN Update
Today's article provides the final update on Renewable Identification Number (RIN) generation in 2015 based on available data from EPA's EMTS. Previous quarterly updates covered RIN generation throughout 2015.
Following-up on RFS Questions
The Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS) has been a hot topic of late given the release of the final rule and its rather prominent feature leading up to the recent Iowa…