Collected Publications for livestock outlook • farmdoc daily

Weekly Outlook

Pork Prospects Improve, But Losses Still Loom

October 1, 2018
Chris Hurt

The pork outlook looked bleak in August. Fear of large pork supplies and Mexican and Chinese tariffs on U.S. pork exports appeared disastrous to hog prices. At that time, my…

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Net Return Prospects for Cattle Finishing in the Second Half of 2018

August 3, 2018
Michael Langemeier

After large losses in 2015 and 2016, cattle finishing net returns averaged approximately $110 per head in 2017. Net returns were much tighter in the first half of 2018. Current…

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Weekly Outlook

Too Much Pork, Tariffs Mean Too Few Buyers

July 9, 2018
Chris Hurt

The pork industry appears to be headed for a period of large losses in which excess pork supplies force prices below costs of production. In addition, demand will likely be…

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Weekly Outlook

Pork Industry May Face Large Losses

June 4, 2018
Chris Hurt

Large pork supplies, rising costs, and potential trade retaliation from both Mexico and China continue to cast a shadow over the pork industry. Losses are expected for the rest of…

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Weekly Outlook

Pork Tariffs Sour Industry Outlook

April 2, 2018
Chris Hurt

The 2018 outlook early this year was for modest profitability. Now, it has shifted to losses. The reasons are clear. Higher costs and lost exports as China has implemented a…

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Weekly Outlook

Hog Prices Increase, But So Do Feed Costs

February 26, 2018
Chris Hurt

The pork market has been favored by strong demand and that remains supportive for hog prices this year. Prospects remain positive for higher producer prices again in 2018 even in…

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Weekly Outlook

Cattle Inventory Growth Slowing Down, But Beef Production Still Increasing

February 5, 2018
James Mintert

USDA released its annual Cattle inventory report last week and the report confirmed that, although the U.S. cattle herd was still growing during 2017, the rate of growth slowed sharply…

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Weekly Outlook

Hog Prices Supported by Strong Demand

January 2, 2018
Chris Hurt

In USDA's December Hogs and Pigs report, pork producers indicated they continue to increase the breeding herd at a slow-sustainable pace. The breeding herd was up one percent and the…

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IFES 2017: Crop and Livestock Price Prospects for 2018

December 28, 2017
Todd Hubbs

Crop prices will remain below the high levels seen in the early part of this decade due to large global inventories. Global economic growth continues to build on the momentum…

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Projected Positive Economic Profit Margins for Dairy Producers in 2017 After Continued Negative Margins in 2016

December 15, 2017
Bradley Zwilling, Brandy Krapf, and Dwight Raab

Lower milk prices resulted in continued negative economic returns for Illinois dairy producers in 2016, according to figures summarized by University of Illinois agricultural economists in cooperation with the Illinois…

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Weekly Outlook

Hog Price Prospects Strengthen

December 4, 2017
Chris Hurt

Hog prices this fall have been stronger than anticipated. In early October, USDA analysts estimated that fourth quarter live prices would average $38 to $40 per hundredweight. Now it looks…

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Weekly Outlook

Increase in U.S. Calf Crop Points Towards Larger Beef Supplies in 2018-2019

July 24, 2017
James Mintert

USDA provided several key updates last week when it released the July Cattle inventory report along with its monthly Cattle on Feed report. The mid-year cattle inventory report provided the…

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Weekly Outlook

Weather Clouds Pork Outlook

July 10, 2017
Chris Hurt

Pork producers are watching the weather forecast almost as intently as crop producers. Higher feed prices driven by weather forecasts are now a new threat to their returns. Current feed…

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Weekly Outlook

Hog Prices Continue to Be Higher this Year

June 5, 2017
Chris Hurt

For agricultural commodities, larger supplies generally result in lower prices. This year's hog market is going against that adage with both larger supplies and higher prices.

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Weekly Outlook

Pork Industry Favored by Strong Demand

April 10, 2017
Chris Hurt

Hog prices are expected to increase in 2017 even with three percent more pork production. Prices will be supported by stronger demand because of a growing U.S. economy and by…

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Net Return Prospects for Cattle Finishing in 2017

March 3, 2017
Michael Langemeier

With the exception of May 2016, monthly fed cattle net returns were negative during 2015 and 2016. Current prospects for 2017 appear much brighter. In addition to discussing net return…

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Weekly Outlook

Hog Prices Outperform Expectations

February 27, 2017
Chris Hurt

The pork industry outlook has experienced a major shift to the upside. Pork producers are pleased to see 2017 hog prices higher than expected. The low point for the industry…

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Weekly Outlook

Cattle Industry Still in Expansion Mode, At Least for Now

February 6, 2017
James Mintert

Once a year USDA releases its comprehensive Cattle report, which includes survey based estimates of the all cattle and calves inventory, the 2016 calf crop, beef and dairy cow inventories,…

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Prospects for Swine Finishing Costs in 2017

February 3, 2017
Michael Langemeier

Hurt notes the challenges facing the swine industry over the next several months. Though certainly not a panacea, feed costs are expected to be relatively low during the next several…

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Weekly Outlook

More Pork in 2017 With Higher Hog Prices?

January 3, 2017
Chris Hurt

The latest Hogs and Pigs report released on December 23 indicated that pork supplies in 2017 will be larger than pre-report expectations.

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IFES 2016: Crop and Livestock Price Prospects for 2017

December 28, 2016
Darrel Good

Crop prices remain well below the record levels of 2010 through 2013 as U.S. and world supplies remain abundant, even with a shortfall in South American corn and soybean production…

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Weekly Outlook

Hog Prices Join Corn and Wheat at Ten-Year Lows

December 5, 2016
Chris Hurt

It is interesting to be an observer of agricultural price movements. However, for many producers of agricultural commodities, prices are a key driver of their financial wellbeing. Wide ranging price…

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Weekly Outlook

Cattle Prices, More Room for Recovery?

November 7, 2016
Chris Hurt

Some are saying this is the most volatile cattle market ever. An evaluation of that statement would take considerable number crunching, but everyone can agree that few expected cattle prices…

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Impact of Lower Corn Prices on Feeding Cost of Gain and Cattle Finishing Net Returns

October 13, 2016
Michael Langemeier

Both fed cattle and corn prices have dropped significantly during the last year. Specifically, since September 2015 fed cattle prices in Kansas have declined approximately 23 percent (from $137.35 to…

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Real Deflated Prices of Corn, Soybeans, Wheat, and Upland Cotton: Reemergence of the Historical Downward Trend?

October 6, 2016
Carl Zulauf

A feature of US crop prices since the early 20th Century has been a declining inflation-adjusted, real value. This article examines this historical trend in light of the price run…

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