Gardner Policy Series
Dispatches from the Trade Wars
The last month has produced a lot of news on the trade front, much of which has implications for US farmers and their markets. All of the largest and most…
Gardner Policy Series
Farm Bill Food for Thought: Research and Extension
Conference negotiations for a 2018 farm bill reportedly continue behind the scenes, but with little indication about progress. In the meantime, a recent article in the Washington Post provided a…
Gardner Policy Series
The Tariff Conflict and Change in Value of Production of U.S. Field Crops
On July 24, 2018, President Trump announced that the U.S. Department of Agriculture would provide a $12 billion program of assistance to U.S. farms to address economic loss from his…
Gardner Policy Series
2018 Farm Bill Updated: Conference Negotiations Begin
Congress has completed the procedural steps necessary to begin conference negotiations on the two 2018 farm bills produced by the House and Senate. Additionally, the Congressional Budget Office has updated…
Gardner Policy Series
Trade Timeline and Corn and Soybean Prices
China has become an increasingly important trading partner for U.S. agriculture, which makes the escalation of the conflict over tariffs and retaliation particularly troubling for American farmers. In Illinois, corn…
Gardner Policy Series
Conferencing Conservation: Reviewing Title II of the House and Senate Farm Bills
With passage of their respective farm bills, the House and Senate are taking the formal steps to form the conference committee and begin negotiations to complete the legislative process. Among…
Gardner Policy Series
U.S. Corn, Soybean, Wheat Exports and USSR Grain Embargo: Contemporary Implications
With the implementation of tariffs taking effect, President Donald Trump’s trade policy has roiled commodity markets. Tariffs have been imposed on U.S. imports, triggering counter-tariffs on U.S. exports with ag…
Gardner Policy Series
2018 Farm Bill: Two Big Steps Forward & the Top Five Issues for Conference
On June 28, 2018, the Senate overwhelmingly passed its version of the 2018 farm bill with an historic 86 to 11 vote. Senate passage followed on the heels of a…
Gardner Policy Series
Understanding Budget Implications of Cover Crops
Farmers remain under pressure to adopt practices that will reduce nutrient losses from their fields and cover crops are considered the most effective in-field practice for reducing nitrogen and phosphorus…
Gardner Policy Series
Five-Year Income Projections for Grain Farms
Five-year financial projections for Illinois grain farms suggests continued low farm incomes, given that yields are at trend levels with corn prices near $3.60 per bushel and soybean prices ranging…
Gardner Policy Series
Progress and Potential Hurdles for the 2018 Farm Bill
The odds for a farm bill in 2018 have improved considerably. On Wednesday the Senate Ag Committee moved its version of a farm bill with a strong bipartisan vote (20…
Gardner Policy Series
Initial Review of the Senate Ag Committee’s Draft 2018 Farm Bill
On Friday, June 8, 2018, The Senate Committee on Agriculture, Nutrition and Forestry released its committee print for reauthorizing the farm bill in 2018 . The programs authorized by the…
Gardner Policy Series
Gambling on Exports: A Review of the Facts on U.S. Agricultural Trade
The outlook for trade has darkened considerably in recent days; a gamble in the trade arena that holds substantial risk for American farmers. In May, President Trump initiated a trade…
Gardner Policy Series
Reviewing Directions in Conservation Policy: CSP and EQIP in the House Farm Bill
The farm bill reported by the House Ag Committee and defeated on the House floor remains in a state of limbo. Among the changes to policy contained in H.R. 2…
Gardner Policy Series
A Policy of First among Equals – The Case of PLC and “Other Oilseeds”
In the context of U.S. commodity policy, "other oilseeds" include canola, crambe, flaxseed, mustard seed, rapeseed, safflower, sesame seed, and sunflower seed, as well as "any oilseed designated by the…
Gardner Policy Series
Mapping the Fate of the Farm, 2018 House Edition
On Friday, May 18, 2018, the House of Representatives defeated the farm bill brought to the floor by the House Ag Committee by a vote of 198 to 213. This…
Gardner Policy Series
2018 First Quarter RIN Update
Today’s article provides the first quarterly update on RIN generation for 2018. Generation figures and projections are based on available data from EPA’s EMTS through April of 2018, with annual…
Gardner Policy Series
Comparing Price Policy Directions in the 2018 Farm Bill Debate
Historically, much of the farm program debate has been driven by concerns about low crop prices and a regional dispute about the best policy for addressing those concerns. This was…
Gardner Policy Series
Premium Subsidy and Insured U.S. Acres: Differential Impact by Crop
Cost of Federal Crop Insurance is an on-going farm policy issue. In his Fiscal Year 2019 budget, President Trump proposed a 14 percentage point reduction in the insurance program subsidy. …
Gardner Policy Series
Comparing ARC-CO and PLC Payment Profiles, 2014-2016 Crops
Payments by ARC-CO (Agriculture Risk Coverage - County) and PLC (Price Loss Coverage) are examined for 22 program commodities using FSA (Farm Service Agency) reported payments for the 2014-16 crops.…
Gardner Policy Series
Continued Review of Fixed Price Farm Policy
This article continues the discussion of the long-running farm policy that triggers payments to farmers using crop prices fixed in statute. The previous articles looked at historic target price policy…
Gardner Policy Series
Initial Review of the House 2018 Farm Bill
On Thursday, April 18, 2018, the House Agriculture Committee reported its version of the farm bill titled the Agriculture and Nutrition Act of 2018. The vote to report the bill…
Gardner Policy Series
Impacts of Chinese Soybean Tariffs on Financial Position of Central Illinois Grain Farms
Recent events suggest a possibility that China will place a 25% tariff on soybean exports from the United States to China. Such a tariff would result in lower soybean prices…
Gardner Policy Series
Reviewing the CBO Baseline for 2018 Farm Bill Debate
On April 9, 2018, the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) released its updated and revised baseline for the major programs in the farm bill. If Congress reauthorizes the farm bill programs…
Gardner Policy Series
Interest Rate and Current U.S. Cropland Prices
The Federal Reserve has initiated what appears to be sustained, incremental increases in the Federal Funds rate and by extension other interest rates. Current expectation is for a ¾ to…