Collected Publications for USDA reports • farmdoc daily

Weekly Outlook

Anticipating September 1 Stocks for Corn and Soybeans

September 24, 2018
Todd Hubbs

The USDA releases the Quarterly Grain Stocks report on September 28. The report indicates corn and soybean use during the fourth quarter of the 2017-18 marketing year. Corn and soybean…

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Measuring the Accuracy of Forecasting Corn and Soybean Yield with Good and Excellent Crop Condition Ratings

June 27, 2018
Scott Irwin and Todd Hubbs

Recent crop condition ratings continue to provide support to the notion of excellent yield potential for corn and soybeans this year. Previous farmdoc daily articles have emphasized the limited information…

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Weekly Outlook

Anticipating June 1 Corn Stocks

June 25, 2018
Todd Hubbs

As trade issues continue to inject uncertainty into commodity markets, the USDA reports due for release on June 29 look to impart additional data on corn demand and supply moving…

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Does the Bias in Early Season Crop Condition Ratings for Corn and Soybeans Vary with the Magnitude of the Ratings?

June 20, 2018
Scott Irwin and Todd Hubbs

The strong start to the growing season, as indicated by 79 percent of the U.S. corn crop and 73 percent of U.S. soybean crop rated in good or excellent condition…

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What to Make of High Early Season Crop Condition Ratings for Soybeans

June 14, 2018
Scott Irwin and Todd Hubbs

The USDA’s first condition rating on June 3, 2018 indicated that 75 percent of the U.S. soybean crop was rated in good or excellent condition. In conjunction with trade issues,…

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What to Make of High Early Season Crop Condition Ratings for Corn?

June 13, 2018
Scott Irwin and Todd Hubbs

The USDA's first condition rating on May 27, 2018 indicated that 79 percent of the U.S. corn crop was rated in good or excellent condition. This information has undoubtedly contributed…

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Will Farm Income Really Drop to a 12-Year Low in 2018?

February 21, 2018
Todd Kuethe

On February 7, USDA's Economic Research Service (ERS) released their initial 2018 farm income forecasts. ERS forecasts a number of farm financial measures. The two most commonly reported measures are…

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Weekly Outlook

USDA Reports Provide Some Surprises

January 16, 2018
Todd Hubbs

The USDA released a set of reports on January 12 containing information with implications for corn and soybean prices in 2018. The National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) released the final…

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Weekly Outlook

Anticipating December 1 Corn Stocks

December 18, 2017
Todd Hubbs

The USDA releases the estimate of corn stocks held in the U.S. on January 12. On the same date, the final estimate of the size of the 2017 corn crop…

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Interpreting USDA’s November Farm Income Forecast

November 29, 2017
Todd Kuethe, Todd Hubbs and Dwight Sanders

On November 29, 2017, the USDA's Economic Research Service released an updated projection of 2017 net farm income. The forecast of $63.2 billion is $200 million (0.3%) lower than the…

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Should We Be Surprised about the U.S. Average Yield of Corn and Soybeans in 2017?

November 1, 2017
Scott Irwin

In the Crop Production report released on October 10, 2017 the USDA estimated the U.S. average yield of corn to be 171.8 bushels per acre and the average yield of…

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Interpreting USDA’s Recent Farm Income Forecast

August 31, 2017
Todd Kuethe, Todd Hubbs, and Dwight Sanders

On August 30, 2017, the USDA released the most recent forecast of 2017 net farm income. The updated projection of $63.4 billion is $1.1 billion (1.8 percent) higher than the…

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Weekly Outlook

Cattle on Feed Inventory Remains Above a Year Ago

August 28, 2017
James Mintert

USDA released its August Cattle on Feed report on Friday along with the monthly Livestock Slaughter report. The two reports provide some updated information to use in projecting future cattle…

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Interpreting USDA’s Net Farm Income Forecast

August 25, 2017
Todd Kuethe, Todd Hubbs and Dwight Sanders

Net farm income is one of the USDA's most cited statistics. USDA's measure of net farm income plays an important role in the design, implementation, and evaluation of agricultural policy.…

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Weekly Outlook

Corn and Soybean Yield Forecasts Larger Than Expected

August 14, 2017
Todd Hubbs

The USDA's August Crop Production report contained larger than expected forecasts for the 2017 U.S. corn and soybean crops. At 169.5 bushels per acre and 49.4 bushels per acre respectively,…

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Weekly Outlook

June 30 Stocks and Acreage Reports Implications for Corn and Soybeans

July 3, 2017
Todd Hubbs

On June 30, the USDA released the Acreage and Grain Stocks reports. The Acreage report surprised many observers and generated strong positive movements in corn and soybean prices. The following…

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Weekly Outlook

Soybeans and the June 30 USDA Reports

June 26, 2017
Todd Hubbs

The USDA will release the quarterly Grain Stocks report, with estimates of crop inventories as of June 1, and the annual Acreage report on June 30. For soybeans, the stocks…

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The Role of Weather in the Pattern of Corn Prices over Time

June 14, 2017
Scott Irwin, Darrel Good, and Todd Hubbs

In the farmdoc daily article of June 7, 2017, we examined the long-term pattern of corn prices during the era spanning from 1973 through November 2006 and the new era…

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Are There Predictable Crop Price Cycles?

June 7, 2017
Darrel Good, Todd Hubbs, and Scott Irwin

The downturn in crop prices that began in mid- to late-2014 and continues today has led to declining farm income and downward pressure on farmland values and rents. The financial…

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How Should We Use Within-Season Crop Condition Ratings for Corn and Soybeans?

June 1, 2017
Scott Irwin and Darrel Good

In the farmdoc daily article of May 24, 2017 we examined the relationship between corn and soybean crop condition ratings at various times in the growing season and the U.S.…

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When Should We Start Paying Attention to Crop Condition Ratings for Corn and Soybeans?

May 24, 2017
Scott Irwin and Darrel Good

The USDA will report crop condition ratings for the 2017 U.S corn and soybean crops in the 18 major producing states in the weekly Crop Progress report beginning May 30…

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What’s Driving the Non-Linear Trend in U.S. Average Soybean Yields?

May 10, 2017
Scott Irwin , Todd Hubbs, and Darrel Good

In the farmdoc daily articles of April 19, 2017 and May 3, 2017 we began to address the potential reasons behind the observation that U.S. average soybean yields in 2014,…

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U.S. Soybean Yield Trends for Irrigated and Non-Irrigated Production

May 3, 2017
Scott Irwin , Todd Hubbs, and Darrel Good

Very high U.S average soybean yields that were well above the long-term linear trend values (calculated beginning in 1960) in each of the last three years continues to be somewhat…

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Will the Shift in Soybean Acreage Impact National Yield in 2017? A State-Level Trend Analysis

April 19, 2017
Todd Hubbs, Scott Irwin, and Darrel Good

USDA's release of the March Prospective Planting report indicated an increase in planted acreage for soybeans in 2017. At a record high of 89.5 million acres, the report shows approximately…

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What to expect from the next USDA Prospective Plantings Report?

March 30, 2017
Olga Isengildina-Massa

USDA will release the next Prospective Plantings report on March 31, 2017. This report will contain survey-based estimates of producer planting intentions for all major US crops and will provide…

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