U.S. Hay Market over the Last 100 Years
Hay is the 3rd largest U.S. crop in terms of harvest acres. It also provides environmental services, notably erosion control. Understanding the U.S. hay market is therefore important for both…
Weekly Farm Economics
Market Facilitation Program: Impacts and Initial Analysis
USDA released details on aid it will provide to farmers in response to trade disputes, resulting in tariffs instituted by the U.S. and retaliatory tariffs from trading partners, especially China.…
Gardner Policy Series
Farm Bill Food for Thought: Research and Extension
Conference negotiations for a 2018 farm bill reportedly continue behind the scenes, but with little indication about progress. In the meantime, a recent article in the Washington Post provided a…
2018 World Soybean Trade: Aberrations from Recent Trends
Soybeans are one of the products at the center of President Trump’s use of tariffs to impact trade policy. China has imposed a 25% counter-tariff on US soybeans. It buys…
Gardner Policy Series
The Tariff Conflict and Change in Value of Production of U.S. Field Crops
On July 24, 2018, President Trump announced that the U.S. Department of Agriculture would provide a $12 billion program of assistance to U.S. farms to address economic loss from his…
Gardner Policy Series
2018 Farm Bill Updated: Conference Negotiations Begin
Congress has completed the procedural steps necessary to begin conference negotiations on the two 2018 farm bills produced by the House and Senate. Additionally, the Congressional Budget Office has updated…
Weekly Farm Economics
Setting 2019 Cash Rents with Price Uncertainty due to Trade Disputes
Landowners and farmers will soon begin thinking about setting 2019 cash rent levels with the current trade uncertainty as a backdrop to those rental negotiations. The possibility of trade disruptions…
U.S. Share of World Economic Growth: Implications for U.S. Trade Policy
An overlooked question in the debate over President Trump’s trade policy is “Why has the U.S. reversed long-standing positions on free trade?” It is important to ponder this question, especially…
Weekly Farm Economics
Alternatives for ARC-CO and PLC in 2018 Farm Bill Negotiations: The Case of Corn
The House and Senate have respectively passed their versions of a 2018 Farm Bill and now a conference committee will attempt to work out differences. Both the House and Senate…
Gardner Policy Series
U.S. Corn, Soybean, Wheat Exports and USSR Grain Embargo: Contemporary Implications
With the implementation of tariffs taking effect, President Donald Trump’s trade policy has roiled commodity markets. Tariffs have been imposed on U.S. imports, triggering counter-tariffs on U.S. exports with ag…
Gardner Policy Series
2018 Farm Bill: Two Big Steps Forward & the Top Five Issues for Conference
On June 28, 2018, the Senate overwhelmingly passed its version of the 2018 farm bill with an historic 86 to 11 vote. Senate passage followed on the heels of a…
Interest Rates in 30-Year Perspective: The Case of U.S. 10-Year Treasury Rates
On Wednesday, June 13, 2018, the Federal Reserve increased the Federal funds rate for the 2nd time in 2018 and 7th time since December 2015. It also signaled that 2…
Gardner Policy Series
Progress and Potential Hurdles for the 2018 Farm Bill
The odds for a farm bill in 2018 have improved considerably. On Wednesday the Senate Ag Committee moved its version of a farm bill with a strong bipartisan vote (20…
Gardner Policy Series
Initial Review of the Senate Ag Committee’s Draft 2018 Farm Bill
On Friday, June 8, 2018, The Senate Committee on Agriculture, Nutrition and Forestry released its committee print for reauthorizing the farm bill in 2018 . The programs authorized by the…
Gardner Policy Series
A Policy of First among Equals – The Case of PLC and “Other Oilseeds”
In the context of U.S. commodity policy, "other oilseeds" include canola, crambe, flaxseed, mustard seed, rapeseed, safflower, sesame seed, and sunflower seed, as well as "any oilseed designated by the…
Revised Estimates of 2017 ARC-CO Payments
In recent months, forecasts of 2017 Market Year Average prices have increased. Higher MYA prices will result in lower 2017 payments for the Agricultural Risk Coverage at the County level…
Gardner Policy Series
Comparing Price Policy Directions in the 2018 Farm Bill Debate
Historically, much of the farm program debate has been driven by concerns about low crop prices and a regional dispute about the best policy for addressing those concerns. This was…
Gardner Policy Series
Premium Subsidy and Insured U.S. Acres: Differential Impact by Crop
Cost of Federal Crop Insurance is an on-going farm policy issue. In his Fiscal Year 2019 budget, President Trump proposed a 14 percentage point reduction in the insurance program subsidy. …
Gardner Policy Series
Comparing ARC-CO and PLC Payment Profiles, 2014-2016 Crops
Payments by ARC-CO (Agriculture Risk Coverage - County) and PLC (Price Loss Coverage) are examined for 22 program commodities using FSA (Farm Service Agency) reported payments for the 2014-16 crops.…
Gardner Policy Series
Continued Review of Fixed Price Farm Policy
This article continues the discussion of the long-running farm policy that triggers payments to farmers using crop prices fixed in statute. The previous articles looked at historic target price policy…
Gardner Policy Series
Initial Review of the House 2018 Farm Bill
On Thursday, April 18, 2018, the House Agriculture Committee reported its version of the farm bill titled the Agriculture and Nutrition Act of 2018. The vote to report the bill…
Gardner Policy Series
Impacts of Chinese Soybean Tariffs on Financial Position of Central Illinois Grain Farms
Recent events suggest a possibility that China will place a 25% tariff on soybean exports from the United States to China. Such a tariff would result in lower soybean prices…
Gardner Policy Series
Reviewing the CBO Baseline for 2018 Farm Bill Debate
On April 9, 2018, the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) released its updated and revised baseline for the major programs in the farm bill. If Congress reauthorizes the farm bill programs…
Gardner Policy Series
Interest Rate and Current U.S. Cropland Prices
The Federal Reserve has initiated what appears to be sustained, incremental increases in the Federal Funds rate and by extension other interest rates. Current expectation is for a ¾ to…
Gardner Policy Series
Farm Bill Review: Historic Fixed Price Policy and Federal Expenditures
To round out the initial discussion of fixed price farm policy, this article reviews Federal expenditures for deficiency payments during the 1975 to 1995 crop years. The article builds on…