farm program analysis and outlook

Gardner Policy Series

Reflections on the U.S. 2018 Midterm Elections

  • November 8, 2018

  • Jonathan Coppess, Nick Paulson, Gary Schnitkey, and Carl Zulauf

This article is composed of 4 short reflections on the 2018 U.S. midterm elections and their potential impact on U.S. farm economics and policy.  Each was written independently.  We often…
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Weekly Farm Economics

Market Facilitation Program: Impacts and Initial Analysis

  • August 28, 2018

  • Gary Schnitkey, Jonathan Coppess, Nick Paulson, Krista Swanson and Carl Zulauf

USDA released details on aid it will provide to farmers in response to trade disputes, resulting in tariffs instituted by the U.S. and retaliatory tariffs from trading partners, especially China.…
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Farm Safety Net for 2018

  • July 27, 2018

  • Michael Langemeier and Michael Boehlje

In earlier articles, we projected earnings for a case farm in west central Indiana, and examined the sensitivity of earnings and the farm safety net to changes in price and…
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Revised Estimates of 2017 ARC-CO Payments

  • May 30, 2018

  • Gary Schnitkey, Nick Paulson, Jonathan Coppess and Carl Zulauf

In recent months, forecasts of 2017 Market Year Average prices have increased. Higher MYA prices will result in lower 2017 payments for the Agricultural Risk Coverage at the County level…
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Gardner Policy Series

U.S. Field Crop Income – Return to Normalcy

  • March 21, 2018

  • Carl Zulauf , Gary Schnitkey, Jonathan Coppess and Nick Paulson

The economic state of U.S. crop farming has drawn considerable attention in recent years. This article uses U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) cost of production data to compare the ratio…
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Gardner Policy Series

Premium Subsidy and Insured U.S. Acres

  • March 15, 2018

  • Carl Zulauf Gary Schnitkey, Jonathan Coppess and Nick Paulson

Cost of Federal Crop Insurance is an on-going farm policy issue. President Trump proposed several changes to reduce its cost in his Fiscal Year 2019 budget. The changes include reducing…
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Estimated 2017 ARC-CO Payments

  • February 27, 2018

  • Gary Schnitkey, Jonathan Coppess, Nick Paulson and

The National Agricultural Statistical Service (NASS) released county yields for 2017 (released February 22 on NASS's Quick Stats website. With these NASS yields, fairly accurate estimates of 2017 Agricultural Risk…
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Gardner Policy Series

Declining Cost of Production and Farm Policy

  • December 14, 2017

  • Carl Zulauf, Nick Paulson, Jonathan Coppess and Gary Schnitkey

In a July 25, 2017 farmdoc daily article, Schnitkey discussed declining cost of production for Illinois corn and soybeans. This article extends the discussion to the U.S. and to barley,…
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Are ARC-CO and PLC Substitute Programs?

  • November 9, 2017

  • Carl Zulauf, Gary Schnitkey, Jonathan Coppess and Nick Paulson

The 2014 farm bill required farms to choose between ARC (Agriculture Risk Coverage) and PLC (Price Loss Coverage). While overlap in payments can occur, ARC and PLC have different design…
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Gardner Policy Series

Comparing NASS and RMA County Yields for Corn

  • November 2, 2017

  • Carl Zulauf, Gary Schnitkey, Nick Paulson and Jonathan Coppess

Controversy has surrounded determination of ARC-CO (Agriculture Risk Coverage county) yields. One component of this controversy is the difference in the county yields determined by NASS (National Agricultural Statistics Service)…
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Gardner Policy Series

Comparing ARC-CO and PLC Payments from 2014 to 2016

  • October 25, 2017

  • Nick Paulson, Jonathan Coppess, Gary Schnitkey and Carl Zulauf

The daily article from October 13, 2017 provided a comparison of ARC-CO and PLC payments for 2016 for corn and wheat. Today's article provides county level comparisons for the two…
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Gardner Policy Series

Comparison of 2016 ARC-CO and PLC Payments

  • October 13, 2017

  • Nick Paulson, Gary Schnitkey, Jonathan Coppess and Carl Zulauf

The daily article from October 6, 2017 presents a summary of 2016 ARC-CO payments for corn, soybeans, and wheat. Today's article provides county level estimates of PLC payments for these…
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Outlook for 2017 ARC-CO Payments

  • October 10, 2017

  • Gary Schnitkey, Jonathan Coppess, Nick Paulson and Carl Zulauf

For those counties in which payments will be received, farmers and land owners will soon receive Agricultural Risk Coverage (ARC) and Price Loss Coverage (PLC) payments related to 2016 production.…
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2016 ARC-CO Payments

  • October 6, 2017

  • Nick Paulson, Gary Schnitkey, Jonathan Coppess and Carl Zulauf

The Farm Service Agency has released 2016 county yields, thereby providing all information needed to calculate Agricultural Risk Coverage - County Coverage (ARC-CO) payments. This article contains maps showing payments…
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