Collected Publications for Gary Schnitkey • farmdoc daily

Weekly Farm Economics

2019 Crop Budgets Suggest Dismal Corn and Soybean Returns

September 18, 2018
Gary Schnitkey and Krista Swanson

Due to lower soybean prices and higher costs, budgets suggest returns will be very low for corn and soybeans in 2019. Conserving cash, cutting investments, reducing costs, and renegotiating cash…

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Weekly Farm Economics

Closing in on 2018 Gross Revenue Estimates for Corn and Soybeans

September 11, 2018
Gary Schnitkey

Recently released yield estimates and the announcement of Market Facilitation Program details allows for more accurate estimates of 2018 gross revenue for corn and soybeans. Gross revenue in 2018 could…

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Weekly Farm Economics

Exceptional 2018 Corn and Soybean Yields and Budgeting for 2019

September 5, 2018
Gary Schnitkey

Illinois again will have exceptional yields in 2018, with the National Agricultural Statistical Service (NASS) projecting record high yields for both corn and soybeans. Recent high yields may give overconfidence…

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Weekly Farm Economics

Market Facilitation Program: Impacts and Initial Analysis

August 28, 2018
Gary Schnitkey, Jonathan Coppess, Nick Paulson, Krista Swanson and Carl Zulauf

USDA released details on aid it will provide to farmers in response to trade disputes, resulting in tariffs instituted by the U.S. and retaliatory tariffs from trading partners, especially China.…

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Gardner Policy Series

Farm Bill Food for Thought: Research and Extension

August 23, 2018
Jonathan Coppess, Carl Zulauf, Nick Paulson and Gary Schnitkey

Conference negotiations for a 2018 farm bill reportedly continue behind the scenes, but with little indication about progress. In the meantime, a recent article in the Washington Post provided a…

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2018 World Soybean Trade: Aberrations from Recent Trends

August 21, 2018
Carl Zulauf and Gary Schnitkey

Soybeans are one of the products at the center of President Trump’s use of tariffs to impact trade policy. China has imposed a 25% counter-tariff on US soybeans. It buys…

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Gardner Policy Series

The Tariff Conflict and Change in Value of Production of U.S. Field Crops

August 16, 2018
Carl Zulauf, Jonathan Coppess, Nick Paulson and Gary Schnitkey

On July 24, 2018, President Trump announced that the U.S. Department of Agriculture would provide a $12 billion program of assistance to U.S. farms to address economic loss from his…

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Managing the Economics of Planting Cereal Rye as a Cover Crop

August 14, 2018
Gary Schnitkey, Krista Swanson, Jonathan Coppess and Shalamar Armstrong

Many farmers begin experimenting with cover crops by planting cereal rye into corn stalks with the following crop being soybeans. This article discusses some of the economic implications of adopting…

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Gardner Policy Series

2018 Farm Bill Updated: Conference Negotiations Begin

August 9, 2018
Jonathan Coppess, Carl Zulauf, Gary Schnitkey, Krista Swanson, Nick Paulson and Benjamin Gramig

Congress has completed the procedural steps necessary to begin conference negotiations on the two 2018 farm bills produced by the House and Senate. Additionally, the Congressional Budget Office has updated…

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Weekly Farm Economics

Corn and Soybean Budgets for 2018 and 2019: Low Returns Ahead

August 7, 2018
Gary Schnitkey

Corn and soybean returns for high-productivity farms in central Illinois are projected for 2018 and 2019. Corn and soybean prices have declined in recent months, with trade disputes impacting those declines.…

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Weekly Farm Economics

Setting 2019 Cash Rents with Price Uncertainty due to Trade Disputes

August 2, 2018
Gary Schnitkey and Carl Zulauf

Landowners and farmers will soon begin thinking about setting 2019 cash rent levels with the current trade uncertainty as a backdrop to those rental negotiations. The possibility of trade disruptions…

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U.S. Share of World Economic Growth: Implications for U.S. Trade Policy

August 1, 2018
Carl Zulauf, Gary Schnitkey, Jonathan Coppess, and Nick Paulson

An overlooked question in the debate over President Trump’s trade policy is “Why has the U.S. reversed long-standing positions on free trade?” It is important to ponder this question, especially…

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Gardner Policy Series

Trade Timeline and Corn and Soybean Prices

July 31, 2018
Krista Swanson, Jonathan Coppess, and Gary Schnitkey

China has become an increasingly important trading partner for U.S. agriculture, which makes the escalation of the conflict over tariffs and retaliation particularly troubling for American farmers. In Illinois, corn…

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Weekly Farm Economics

Alternatives for ARC-CO and PLC in 2018 Farm Bill Negotiations: The Case of Corn

July 24, 2018
Gary Schnitkey, Carl Zulauf, Jonathan Coppess, and Nick Paulson

The House and Senate have respectively passed their versions of a 2018 Farm Bill and now a conference committee will attempt to work out differences. Both the House and Senate…

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Gardner Policy Series

Conferencing Conservation: Reviewing Title II of the House and Senate Farm Bills

July 19, 2018
Jonathan Coppess, Carl Zulauf, Benjamin Gramig, Gary Schnitkey, and Nick Paulson

With passage of their respective farm bills, the House and Senate are taking the formal steps to form the conference committee and begin negotiations to complete the legislative process. Among…

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Weekly Farm Economics

Will Soybean Crop Insurance Payments in 2018 Offset Low Prices?

July 17, 2018
Gary Schnitkey, Bruce Sherrick, and Jonathan Coppess

Trade disputes have roiled commodity markets and created substantial uncertainty about the impact on agricultural exports, especially to China. China’s response to the Administration’s proposed tariffs included tariffs on U.S.…

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Gardner Policy Series

U.S. Corn, Soybean, Wheat Exports and USSR Grain Embargo: Contemporary Implications

July 13, 2018
Carl Zulauf, Jonathan Coppess, Nick Paulson, and Gary Schnitkey

With the implementation of tariffs taking effect, President Donald Trump’s trade policy has roiled commodity markets. Tariffs have been imposed on U.S. imports, triggering counter-tariffs on U.S. exports with ag…

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Weekly Farm Economics

2018 Income Projections After Recent Price Declines

July 10, 2018
Gary Schnitkey

In recent weeks, cash corn prices have declined by $.50 per bushel and soybean prices by $1.80 per bushel, resulting in much lower 2018 income expectations. Crop revenue and returns…

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Gardner Policy Series

2018 Farm Bill: Two Big Steps Forward & the Top Five Issues for Conference

July 3, 2018
Jonathan Coppess, Gary Schnitkey, Carl Zulauf, and Nick Paulson

On June 28, 2018, the Senate overwhelmingly passed its version of the 2018 farm bill with an historic 86 to 11 vote. Senate passage followed on the heels of a…

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Gardner Policy Series

Understanding Budget Implications of Cover Crops

June 28, 2018
Krista Swanson, Gary Schnitkey, Jonathan Coppess and Shalamar Armstrong

Farmers remain under pressure to adopt practices that will reduce nutrient losses from their fields and cover crops are considered the most effective in-field practice for reducing nitrogen and phosphorus…

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Gardner Policy Series

Five-Year Income Projections for Grain Farms

June 26, 2018
Krista Swanson, Gary Schnitkey, Jonathan Coppess and Nick Paulson

Five-year financial projections for Illinois grain farms suggests continued low farm incomes, given that yields are at trend levels with corn prices near $3.60 per bushel and soybean prices ranging…

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Weekly Farm Economics

Has the Era of Decreasing Per Acre Corn Costs Come to an End?

June 21, 2018
Gary Schnitkey

Since 2014, non-land costs of producing corn on high-productivity farmland in central Illinois declined from $617 per acre in 2014 to $569 per acre in 2017, a decrease of $48…

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Gardner Policy Series

Progress and Potential Hurdles for the 2018 Farm Bill

June 19, 2018
Jonathan Coppess, Gary Schnitkey, Nick Paulson and Carl Zulauf

The odds for a farm bill in 2018 have improved considerably. On Wednesday the Senate Ag Committee moved its version of a farm bill with a strong bipartisan vote (20…

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Gardner Policy Series

Initial Review of the Senate Ag Committee’s Draft 2018 Farm Bill

June 12, 2018
Jonathan Coppess, Gary Schnitkey, Carl Zulauf and Nick Paulson

On Friday, June 8, 2018, The Senate Committee on Agriculture, Nutrition and Forestry released its committee print for reauthorizing the farm bill in 2018 . The programs authorized by the…

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Weekly Farm Economics

Historic Fertilizer, Seed, and Chemical Costs with 2019 Projections

June 5, 2018
Gary Schnitkey

Fertilizer, seed, and chemical costs represent a sizable portion of the total costs of producing corn. In this article, costs for these three inputs are reported for the years from…

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