Collected Publications for futures and options markets • farmdoc daily

Weekly Outlook

Chronology of a Sideways Corn Market

May 30, 2017
Darrel Good

Expectations for the magnitude of supply, consumption, and ending stocks for the 2017-18 U.S. corn marketing year have remained remarkably stable for the past several months. As a result, futures…

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Weekly Outlook

Corn Prices Moving Forward

March 27, 2017
Todd Hubbs

May corn futures prices tumbled to the lowest price level since December during the week ending March 24. Large crop estimates from around the world placed downward pressure on the…

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Still More on “Who’s Spoofing Whom?”

January 8, 2016
Paul Peterson

Two recent farmdoc daily articles plus two earlier farmdoc daily articles reviewed three cases of spoofing. Spoofing is a disruptive futures market trading practice defined as "bidding or offering with…

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More on “Who’s Spoofing Whom?”

December 30, 2015
Paul Peterson

A farmdoc daily article last week reviewed the recent conviction of Michael Coscia on six counts of spoofing and six counts of commodity fraud. Spoofing is a disruptive futures market…

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Who’s Spoofing Whom?

December 23, 2015
Paul Peterson

Many opinions have been expressed by market participants in the weeks since a Chicago jury found Michael Coscia guilty of "spoofing" on November 3. This was the first criminal case…

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How Long Will It Take until Corn Prices Recover?

September 3, 2015
Paul Peterson

Market gyrations in recent weeks have driven down prices for many traditional investments as well as most commodities. In previous times of market chaos, stock market investors have been advised…

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Updated Expected Price Distributions for Corn and Soybeans in 2015

August 20, 2015
Bruce Sherrick

At the end of February, RMA established Projected Prices for crop insurance contract for corn of $4.15 and for soybeans of $9.73 for insured production in 2015. The Projected Prices…

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More on “Flash Crash, or Flash in a Pan?”

May 13, 2015
Paul Peterson

In an earlier farmdoc daily article we showed how Navinder Singh Sarao, a London-based trader, allegedly "spoofed" the E-mini S&P 500 market, made $40 million in profits, and played role…

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Flash Crash, or Flash in the Pan?

May 6, 2015
Paul Peterson

The arrest of Navinder Singh Sarao, a London-based trader, for actions that allegedly triggered the sudden collapse of the stock market, or "flash crash," on May 6, 2010 - five…

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Paying for Someone Else’s Pricing Mistakes

March 25, 2015
Paul Peterson

Prices obtained, or "discovered," through active negotiations between buyers and sellers are considered to be the fairest for both parties, because they provide the highest selling price and the lowest…

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How Will Closing the Trading Pits Affect Market Performance?

March 4, 2015
Paul Peterson

CME Group's recent announcement regarding the scheduled July 2 closing of most futures trading pits has triggered a range of reactions from market participants. News stories have covered related issues…

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Price Projections and Farm Bill Program Choices: Adding FAPRI-MU Projections to the Mix

February 12, 2015
Pat Westhoff

A February 4, 2015 farmdoc daily article by Scott Irwin and Darrel Good looked at the historical performance of USDA projections and futures markets in estimating farm prices for corn,…

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Long-Term Corn, Soybeans, and Wheat Price Forecasts and the Farm Bill Program Choice

February 4, 2015
Scott Irwin and Darrel Good

As indicated in the farmdoc daily article on January 14, 2015, many crop producers are in the process of making the farm program participation decision for the five years beginning…

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Long-Term Corn Price Forecasts and the Farm Bill Program Choice

January 14, 2015
Scott Irwin and Darrel Good

Many crop producers are in the process of making the farm program participation decision for the five years beginning with the 2014 crop. Price expectations for this five-year period play…

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Riding the Feeder Cattle Roller Coaster

January 9, 2015
Paul Peterson

Futures prices were limit-down for 5 days in a row in mid-December 2014, the most limit-move days in a livestock contract since the BSE (mad cow) selloff in December 2003.…

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Position Limits and Potential Impacts on Hedgers

December 10, 2014
Paul Peterson

Last week the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) announced the reopening of the public comment period for its latest proposal on position limits for agricultural commodities. This marks the eighth…

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Pricing Issues in Agricultural Markets

October 22, 2014
Paul Peterson

A previous farmdoc daily article discussed the difference between price discovery and price determination, and the trend toward price determination in many agricultural markets. In short, price discovery is the…

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Cattle at the Crossroads

September 12, 2014
Paul Peterson

The year-long across-the-board rally in cattle prices has been driven by a combination of favorable supply and demand factors which have aligned to push prices to record levels. On the…

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Do Futures Forecast the Future?

August 7, 2014
Carl Zulauf, Nick Rettig, and Matt Roberts

A common presumption is that futures prices can predict future price, specifically the price during the last or delivery month of trading on a futures contract. This presumption has potential…

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Updated Expected Price Distributions for Corn and Soybeans in 2014

August 1, 2014
Bruce Sherrick

Crop price expectations have generally trended downward throughout the growing season as conditions have been very favorable for large production of corn and soybeans. Futures price expectations and eventual realizations…

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Position Limits, Hedging, and Excessive Speculation

July 31, 2014
Paul E. Peterson

Position limits - the maximum number of futures contacts that can be owned or controlled by an individual or entity - are back in the spotlight. Readers may recall from…

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Peregrine Financial Group: Two Years and Counting

July 3, 2014
Paul Peterson

July 10 marks the two-year anniversary of the Peregrine Financial Group/PFG Best brokerage firm bankruptcy. While PFG did not attract nearly as much attention as the MF Global collapse, it…

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Fixing Prices and Fixing Markets

June 25, 2014
Paul Peterson

Price discovery is the process of finding the price through the interaction of buyers and sellers. It allows the forces of supply and demand to arrive at a transaction price,…

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Protecting Futures Customers from Brokerage Firm Failures, Part 4

February 26, 2014
Paul Peterson

Earlier posts examined the feasibility of various protection proposals for futures customers and reviewed new CFTC regulations to reduce fellow-customer risk. Today's post concludes this series with a look at…

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The Dairy Safety Net Debate Part III: The Compromise Dairy Safety Net Solution

February 12, 2014
John Newton and Cameron Thraen

In our previous farmdoc daily posts "The Dairy Safety Net Debate of 2013: Parts I and II", we offered an independent analysis of the dairy margin protection programs put forth…

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