The USDA’s cattle inventory report places the total number of cattle and calves on January 1 at 86.7 million head, as the industry continues into a 7th consecutive year of contraction within the cattle cycle. The report indicates smaller beef cow and beef replacement heifer inventories and a smaller calf crop than anticipated. The report again confirms anticipated year over year drops across most inventory categories with fewer beef cows than any time since 1960 and the lowest total inventory since 1951.

Over the past seven years, the interest expense faced by producers receiving a new USDA Farm Service Agency (FSA) farm loan has increased 50 to 62 percent and the total first-year payment has increased 72 to 89 percent. This is due to both increases in interest rates and loan amounts. Increases in the average size of farm loans received by farmers points to an underlying need for larger levels of financing. This is likely driven by the increase in the costs of variable and fixed inputs.

Policy should not pick winners and losers. That well-worn phrase in DC circles is proclaimed more often than followed. As explored in this article, the most recent projections for crop costs, revenues and payments highlight the potential that extraordinarily large payments on southern base acres of peanuts, rice, and seed cotton will make the difference between profit and loss for those farmers who can plant those base acres to corn and soybeans.

Many farmers will be considering the Supplemental and Enhanced Coverage Options (SCO and ECO) this year, as subsidy levels for these federal crop insurance products have been increased from 65% to 80% In many counties, the Risk Management Agency (RMA) increased the expected 2026 yields significantly above 2025 levels. Still, we find many of the expected yields for Illinois counties are below what one should expect given the crop’s recent historical experience, particularly for soybeans.

Supply chain disruptions, market concentration, global trade shocks, and housing shortages push issues related to affordability and the cost of living to the forefront. However, these pressures are not experienced uniformly; substantial regional cost of living differences shape how households navigate their daily expenses. These disparities can influence overall well being and exacerbate economic inequality, particularly in high cost metropolitan areas.

Release of the CBO Baseline is an annual ritual required by federal budget policy, pursuant to which the Congressional Budget Office projects spending on certain programs ten years into the unknowable future. CBO released its February 2026 baseline ahead of schedule, providing a new look at agricultural policy after enactment of major changes in the Reconciliation Farm Bill. This article continues a review of concerns with base acres in farm subsidy programs, adding perspectives from the CBO baseline.