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Corn plant populations increased approximately 1% per year for Iowa, Illinois, and Indiana from 1996 to 2023. For Illinois, the state with highest projected plant population in 2024, corn plant population increased from 24,200 plants per acre in 1996 to 32,400 per acre in 2023. A vast majority of the change in seed costs since 1996 can be explained by changes in seed prices. However, approximately 20% of the variation in seed costs since 1996 was explained by changes in corn plant population.
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Peanuts and soybeans were added to farm programs by Congress in the 2002 Farm Bill but Congressional decisions in policy design for farm program payments have made peanut base acres much more valuable than soybean base acres. If the average payment each year for soybean base and peanut base were totaled (2002 to 2022), each soybean base acre has been worth $203, while each peanut base acre has been worth $3,052.
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Since 1989, the role of crop insurance as a payment program has tripled, even after taking into account the increase in economic cost of production per acre. The increase in crop insurance’s payment function is enough to prompt an important policy question: “Has the US crop insurance program become a payment program that also provides growing season risk coverage or does it remain an insurance program that makes payments triggered by a covered risk event?”
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Significant declines in 2025 cash rents are expected and may be necessary given negative expected returns for 2024, and a continued low return outlook for 2025. As a benchmark, reducing cash rents back to 2020 levels would help, particularly for cash rents that are at or above NASS averages. Rents at 2020 levels still would have resulted in negative returns for 2024 in most cases.
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The single most consequential policy design for conservation programs that received additional funding in the Inflation Reduction Act of 2022 is that Congress has placed caps on the assistance, either the total funds available or the total acres that can be enrolled. One consequence is that there is not enough funding (or acres) to meet the demand for conservation assistance from farmers. The additional funding for conservation was historic, but it is also limited.
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Information on crop insurance performance is now available in a new spreadsheet tool in the farmdoc FAST Tool lineup.  The Crop Insurance Summary of Business Tool provides county-level  summaries of…
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Concerns about the cost of food remain a priority for consumers, and the recent emphasis on food prices by both presidential candidates demonstrates the issue’s continued political salience. Using the Gardner Food and Agriculture Policy Survey, we find that most respondents thought that political parties could help lower food prices. Perhaps not surprisingly, most respondents who identified with one of the major parties thought that only their party could lower prices.
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