Fertilizer prices have been generally increasing since last year but in particular since the start of the conflict in Iran. Higher fertilizer prices increase the value of cost savings that could be achieved by applying nitrogen at rates more in line with MRTN recommendations. Farmers who are still in a position to adjust their total nitrogen applied for the season via remaining spring applications have the potential to at least partially mitigate the increase in their cost of nitrogen fertilizers for corn production.

A small increase in lighter weight hogs partly reflects that December through February pig crop is up 0.6% from a year ago, despite a 1.5% decrease in sows farrowed, which was again more than offset by another record 11.90 pigs per litter for the period or 2.0% more than a year ago. Continued productivity growth should be expected, given historical trends and biological feasibility, as indicated by pigs per litter in other countries.

When war disrupts regions that are critical to the production or movement of major commodities, prices often spike first before markets can assess how long the supply shock will last.…

Political power will fix nothing of its own volition—it only operates in one direction. This means that fixing the federal crop insurance program likely has only two catalysts: either a collapse in which crop insurance can no longer defy reality and the fundamentals; or rival political powers achieve changes that improve the program’s integrity and bring it more into alignment with those fundamentals. This is the gamble designed into the program, a wager of about $15.5 billion per federal fiscal year.

Despite frequent headlines of burdensome grain & oilseed stocks, they are normal when measured appropriately. The important storyline is that stocks have not increased relative to use even though world yield of grains & oilseeds has been at or above trend since 2012. Stocks are not the reason prices and return are low.

Nitrogen fertilizer prices have increased substantially since Operation Epic Fury commenced. Higher fertilizer prices are likely to continue into the fall. This longer-run price increase could result in a larger impact on farmer costs and returns in 2027 than in 2026. At that point, decision-making for the 2027 crop will present challenges. Given that nitrogen fertilizers are not used intensively on soybeans, higher nitrogen prices could lead to a shift towards more soybean acres and fewer corn acres.