This study finds that, over 2015-2024, RMA expected, or projected, county yields understated US corn and soybean actual county yields more than for wheat while overstating upland cotton yields. This difference between average projected and actual yields contributed to corn and soybeans having lower payments for simulated 95% Enhanced Coverage Option with Revenue Protection (ECO 95% RP) insurance, implying the potential for RMA yield projection procedures to impact cropping decisions.

Fertilizer prices have been generally increasing since last year but in particular since the start of the conflict in Iran. Higher fertilizer prices increase the value of cost savings that could be achieved by applying nitrogen at rates more in line with MRTN recommendations. Farmers who are still in a position to adjust their total nitrogen applied for the season via remaining spring applications have the potential to at least partially mitigate the increase in their cost of nitrogen fertilizers for corn production.

A small increase in lighter weight hogs partly reflects that December through February pig crop is up 0.6% from a year ago, despite a 1.5% decrease in sows farrowed, which was again more than offset by another record 11.90 pigs per litter for the period or 2.0% more than a year ago. Continued productivity growth should be expected, given historical trends and biological feasibility, as indicated by pigs per litter in other countries.

When war disrupts regions that are critical to the production or movement of major commodities, prices often spike first before markets can assess how long the supply shock will last.…

Political power will fix nothing of its own volition—it only operates in one direction. This means that fixing the federal crop insurance program likely has only two catalysts: either a collapse in which crop insurance can no longer defy reality and the fundamentals; or rival political powers achieve changes that improve the program’s integrity and bring it more into alignment with those fundamentals. This is the gamble designed into the program, a wager of about $15.5 billion per federal fiscal year.

Despite frequent headlines of burdensome grain & oilseed stocks, they are normal when measured appropriately. The important storyline is that stocks have not increased relative to use even though world yield of grains & oilseeds has been at or above trend since 2012. Stocks are not the reason prices and return are low.