The U.S. biomass-based diesel (BBD) industry went over a RIN cliff in May 2023. It is clear in hindsight that the boom in BBD capacity and production in the U.S., largely associated with renewable diesel, was simply too much too soon relative to the demand ceiling implied by the RFS mandates. The good news is that there may be light at the end of the tunnel for BBD producers. Recent data show that BBD supply is now better balanced with the demand ceiling.

Illinois crop budgets for 2025 have been revised from their initial release in September. Based on recent futures market activity, the 2025 corn price has been increased to $4.30 per bushel while the soybean price has been reduced to $10.20. This marginally improves projected corn returns, while projected soybean returns have declined slightly. Return projections remain negative for corn and soybeans across all regions of Illinois for 2025.

The main sources of risk identified by crop producers in the Midwest, Southern Brazil, and Argentina’s Pampas varies. Understanding the different sources of risk is valuable for improving policy design, facilitating the adoption of innovations, and evaluating the sustainability of production systems. Governments, non-governmental organizations (NGOs), and other stakeholders can allocate resources more efficiently when they understand which risks are of greatest concern to farmers.

The average current ratios in Northern and Central Illinois have demonstrated a sustained improvement since 2003, whereas Southern Illinois tells a story of recovery, given the substantial deterioration in liquidity the region experienced in the 2010s. When considering the distributional differences within each region of the median, upper, and lower quartiles of the current ratio, we see that these differences are much tighter in Southern Illinois.

The average current ratio of grain farms in Illinois has improved over the past two decades, mainly because growth in average current assets has outpaced the increase in current liabilities. According to the Farm Financial Scorecard, a current ratio greater than 2.0 is considered strong. In 2023, the upper quartile of the current ratio was 7.61. In comparison, the median and lower quartile values were considerably lower in 2023, coming in at 2.83 (strong) and 1.52 (cautionary), respectively.

The U.S government currently has a goal of producing three billion gallons of sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) by 2030. Presently, there is only one feasible pathway for ramping up SAF production that quickly. This is through the conversion of part, or all, of the production capacity at existing or soon to be completed HEFA renewable diesel plants. If SAF optionality is at the maximum in 2025 and 2026, projected renewable diesel production capacity would be reduced by nearly 20 percent.