U.S. Hay Market over the Last 100 Years
Hay is the 3rd largest U.S. crop in terms of harvest acres. It also provides environmental services, notably erosion control. Understanding the U.S. hay market is therefore important for both…
Weekly Outlook
Record Corn Yield Forecast Weakens Corn Prices
The USDA crop production report released last Wednesday led to a drop in corn prices as a record yield forecast surprised the market. The December corn futures price dropped to…
Will the August 1 Crop Yield Predictions Hold Up?
Illinois corn and soybean yields in 2018 were predicted in the August 1 NASS report (released on August 10) to be 205 and 65 bushels per acre, respectively, both an…
Weekly Outlook
Will the 2018 Corn Crop Get Smaller?
December corn prices approached contract lows not seen since the second week of July as August ended. The continued weakness in corn prices persists despite 2018-19 marketing year projections of…
Weekly Outlook
Large Corn and Soybean Yield Forecasts Hurt Price Prospects
The USDA August Crop Production report contained larger than expected forecasts for the 2018 U.S. corn and soybean crops. At 178.4 bushels per acre and 51.6 bushels per acre respectively,…
Is the 2018 Soybean Crop as Good as It Looks?
If the appearance of the soybean crop going into late July predicts how it will yield, the 2018 crop in Illinois is going to be a high-yielding one. The crop…
The 2018 Illinois Corn Crop at Mid-Season
The crop progress report from NASS showed that as of July 8, 76 percent (up from 40% on July 1) of the Illinois corn crop was silking, the crop rating…
Measuring the Accuracy of Forecasting Corn and Soybean Yield with Good and Excellent Crop Condition Ratings
Recent crop condition ratings continue to provide support to the notion of excellent yield potential for corn and soybeans this year. Previous farmdoc daily articles have emphasized the limited information…
Does the Bias in Early Season Crop Condition Ratings for Corn and Soybeans Vary with the Magnitude of the Ratings?
The strong start to the growing season, as indicated by 79 percent of the U.S. corn crop and 73 percent of U.S. soybean crop rated in good or excellent condition…
What to Make of High Early Season Crop Condition Ratings for Soybeans
The USDA’s first condition rating on June 3, 2018 indicated that 75 percent of the U.S. soybean crop was rated in good or excellent condition. In conjunction with trade issues,…
What to Make of High Early Season Crop Condition Ratings for Corn?
The USDA's first condition rating on May 27, 2018 indicated that 79 percent of the U.S. corn crop was rated in good or excellent condition. This information has undoubtedly contributed…
Prospects for Timely Planting of the 2018 Corn Crop
It is generally acknowledged that the U.S. average corn yield is largely determined by weather conditions during the reproductive and grain filling stages during the summer months. Still, weather conditions…
How Many Days Does It Take to Plant the U.S. Corn Crop?
Corn planting progress in the U.S. is always a staple of market conversations this time of year. The cold and wet conditions (snow!) in the Corn Belt during the first…
IFES 2017: What Is Up with Soybean Yields?
Soybean yields in the U.S. have been very high the last four years. The U.S. average yield set new records in a stair-step fashion each year between 2014 and 2016.…
Should We Be Surprised about the U.S. Average Yield of Corn and Soybeans in 2017?
In the Crop Production report released on October 10, 2017 the USDA estimated the U.S. average yield of corn to be 171.8 bushels per acre and the average yield of…
Gardner Policy Series
Long Term Relationship between Yield and Acres of U.S. Field Crops
The U.S. has been more dependent than other major exporters on yield to increase production of corn, soybeans, and wheat. This article continues to examine the role of yield. A…
Weekly Outlook
Assessing the Prospects for 2017 Corn Production
The August Crop Production report surprised many market observers by forecasting 2017 corn production at 14.153 billion bushels. In particular, the corn yield forecast of 169.5 bushels per acre came…
Variability in County Corn Yields: 2012 to 2016
Focus soon will turn to 2017 yield estimates as USDA will release their first estimates of national and state yields on August 10th. In preparation for this release, national corn…
Gardner Policy Series
Spanning the Globe — Importance of Yield to Expanding U.S. Corn, Soybean, and Wheat Exports
Worldwide demand for agricultural products will likely grow as higher incomes change diets around the world, especially in developing countries. Much of the ensuing increase in production will come from…
The Role of Weather in the Pattern of Corn Prices over Time
In the farmdoc daily article of June 7, 2017, we examined the long-term pattern of corn prices during the era spanning from 1973 through November 2006 and the new era…
Are There Predictable Crop Price Cycles?
The downturn in crop prices that began in mid- to late-2014 and continues today has led to declining farm income and downward pressure on farmland values and rents. The financial…
Spanning the Globe – Corn, Soybean, and Wheat Production and Exports since 2000: Focus on the Black Sea Area and the U.S.
South America dominates the U.S. view of agricultural production in the rest of the world, in part because it has supplanted the U.S. as the leading producer of soybeans. Such…
How Should We Use Within-Season Crop Condition Ratings for Corn and Soybeans?
In the farmdoc daily article of May 24, 2017 we examined the relationship between corn and soybean crop condition ratings at various times in the growing season and the U.S.…
When Should We Start Paying Attention to Crop Condition Ratings for Corn and Soybeans?
The USDA will report crop condition ratings for the 2017 U.S corn and soybean crops in the 18 major producing states in the weekly Crop Progress report beginning May 30…
Weekly Farm Economics
Still too Early to Say Much About Illinois Corn Yields
Planting conditions in Illinois have been less than ideal in 2017. Rains have delayed planting in some areas. Cool and wet weather has led to emergence problems and hard-to-make replant…