Prospects for Timely Planting of the 2018 Soybean Crop
In a farmdoc daily article on April 25, 2018, we examined the prospects for timely planting of the U.S. corn crop in 2018. Our computations indicated that there was still…
Weekly Outlook
Storing Corn and Soybeans in 2017
The current price structure of corn and soybean futures markets indicate positive carry in both markets and raises the question of whether producers should make decisions about grain sales. The…
Weekly Farm Economics
2017 Crop Budgets and Current Prices Say Switch to Soybeans and Expect Low Returns
Current 2017 fall delivery bids for central Illinois are near $10 per bushel for soybeans while corn is near $3.60 per bushel. At those prices, soybeans are projected to be…
How Long Will It Take until Corn Prices Recover?
Market gyrations in recent weeks have driven down prices for many traditional investments as well as most commodities. In previous times of market chaos, stock market investors have been advised…
Trading at Settlement for Agricultural Futures: Results from the First Month
TAS (trading at settlement) became available for the major agricultural futures contracts on June 15, 2015. Eligible commodities include corn, soybeans, Chicago wheat, Kansas City wheat, soybean oil, soybean meal,…
Owning Corn and Soybeans beyond Harvest in 2014/15
Corn and soybean prices have declined sharply in recent months based on prospects of very large U.S. crops and increasing year-ending stocks. Prices have declined faster and to lower levels…
Resolution of U.S. Crop Year Price Uncertainly and Its Implications for the 2014 Farm Program Decision
The 2014 farm bill gives Farm Service Agency (FSA) farm owners a 1-time decision to elect their Title 1 crop program for the 2014 through 2018 crop years. FSA has…
2014 Farm Bill: The Margin Protection Program Dashboard MPP-Dairy
The 2014 Farm Bill provides the most comprehensive reform to the U.S. federal dairy farm safety net seen in decades. In place of milk price and revenue support programs the…
How Long Should We Expect Corn and Soybean Prices to Remain Above or Below Average?
In a 2008 report and in subsequent articles we argued that corn, soybean, and wheat likely entered an era of higher prices beginning in late 2006. The "new era" of…
Solving the Commodity Markets’ Non-Convergence Puzzle
From 2005 to 2010, expiring corn, soybeans, and wheat futures contracts routinely settled at prices significantly higher than their cash market counterparts. For example, on July 1, 2008, the price…
Weekly Farm Economics
Hedging the 2013 Corn and Soybean Crop Given Crop Insurance
As of this writing, downside revenue risk on the 2013 corn crop is small for those farmers who bought crop revenue products at high coverage levels, given that yields are…
What’s Next for the Cattle Market?
Cattle feeders have witnessed record fed cattle prices over the past few years. But they also have experienced record prices for feed and feeder cattle, resulting in record feeding losses…
New Era Crop Price Distributions and Marketing the 2012 and 2013 Crops
In yesterday's post, we evaluated the average farm price and distribution of monthly farm prices of corn, soybeans, and wheat in Illinois since December 2006 relative to much earlier projections…
The New Era of Crop Prices — A Five-Year Review
In a 2008 report and a 2009 article we addressed whether the trend towards higher crop prices that started in the Fall of 2006 was here to stay. Our analysis…
More Ways to Hedge the RP Guarantee Before Harvest
Recent Farmdoc Daily articles explained how prices in short-crop years often peak early and decline throughout the remainder of the marketing year, and then showed how farmers who insured using…
Weekly Farm Economics
Consider Hedging RP Guarantee before Harvest
During short crop years, corn and soybeans prices often peak early and then decline throughout the remainder of the marketing year. This suggests that producers may wish to consider pricing…
Thinking Out of the Box about Crop and Livestock Marketing
Crop and livestock producers have long identified price risk as one of the highest risk management priorities of the farm business. One of the major challenges of marketing is the…
Corn Basis Revisited
The extremely strong corn basis is currently receiving a lot of attention. We first made note of the strong basis pattern in our post on October 20, 2011. We suggested…
Corn Prices, Basis, and Spreads
December 2011 corn futures increased by $2.00 between July 1, 2011 and August 29, 2011. That contract closed at $7.70 on August 29. Basis levels also strengthened during that period.…
Weekly Outlook
Economics of Corn and Soybean Storage
With smaller grain and oilseed supplies than those of a year ago and increased storage capacity, there should be fewer crop storage issues than in recent years. The decision by…
Weekly Farm Economics
Risk Reductions Possible by Hedging 2012 Grain Production in the Summer of 2011
It has been suggested that farmers consider locking in profits for the 2012 production year (see, for example, here). Current commodity price and cost levels suggest it may be possible…
Weekly Farm Economics
Will Hedging 2011 Corn Now Reduce Downside Revenue Risk?
In this paper, graphs show how hedging different proportions of expected corn production impact the chance of having revenue below three benchmarks. Four analyses are presented: one for no insurance…