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Weekly Farm Economics

2018 Harvest Prices and Crop Insurance Payments in Illinois

November 6, 2018
Gary Schnitkey

The 2018 harvest prices used to determine revenue on crop insurance products are $3.68 per bushel for corn and $8.60 per bushel for soybeans. While both the corn and soybean…

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Weekly Farm Economics

What Could Change the 2019 Corn and Soybean Return Outlook?

October 30, 2018
Gary Schnitkey and Krista Swanson

The outlook for 2019 corn and soybean returns is lower than returns in recent years. However, higher returns are possible under other economic and agronomic situations than those used to…

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Weekly Farm Economics

Incidence of Financial Stress on Illinois Grain Farms

October 23, 2018
Gary Schnitkey and Krista Swanson

Over time working capital has deteriorated and debt-to-asset ratios have increased on grain farms across the Midwest. Average levels of working capital and debt-to-asset ratios still suggest an overall strong…

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Weekly Farm Economics

2017 ARC-CO Payments and Outlook for 2018 Payments

October 16, 2018
Gary Schnitkey, Carl Zulauf, Jonathan Coppess, and Nick Paulson

The Farm Service Agency (FSA) has released 2017 county yields, 2017 Market Year Average (MYA) prices have been determined, and FSA is in the process of making 2017 ARC-CO payments.…

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Weekly Farm Economics

Information for Making 2019 Cash Rental Decisions

October 9, 2018
Gary Schnitkey

This article presents information useful in determining appropriate levels of 2019 cash rents including average cash rents for the state of Illinois, average cash rents for counties, and average cash…

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Weekly Farm Economics

Fertilizer Prices Higher for 2019 Crop

September 25, 2018
Gary Schnitkey

August and September fertilizer prices confirm expectations of rising fertilizer costs for 2019. So far, anhydrous ammonia prices are close to $80 per ton higher for 2019 production as compared…

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Weekly Farm Economics

2019 Crop Budgets Suggest Dismal Corn and Soybean Returns

September 18, 2018
Gary Schnitkey and Krista Swanson

Due to lower soybean prices and higher costs, budgets suggest returns will be very low for corn and soybeans in 2019. Conserving cash, cutting investments, reducing costs, and renegotiating cash…

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Weekly Farm Economics

Closing in on 2018 Gross Revenue Estimates for Corn and Soybeans

September 11, 2018
Gary Schnitkey

Recently released yield estimates and the announcement of Market Facilitation Program details allows for more accurate estimates of 2018 gross revenue for corn and soybeans. Gross revenue in 2018 could…

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Weekly Farm Economics

Exceptional 2018 Corn and Soybean Yields and Budgeting for 2019

September 5, 2018
Gary Schnitkey

Illinois again will have exceptional yields in 2018, with the National Agricultural Statistical Service (NASS) projecting record high yields for both corn and soybeans. Recent high yields may give overconfidence…

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Weekly Farm Economics

Market Facilitation Program: Impacts and Initial Analysis

August 28, 2018
Gary Schnitkey, Jonathan Coppess, Nick Paulson, Krista Swanson and Carl Zulauf

USDA released details on aid it will provide to farmers in response to trade disputes, resulting in tariffs instituted by the U.S. and retaliatory tariffs from trading partners, especially China.…

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Weekly Farm Economics

Corn and Soybean Budgets for 2018 and 2019: Low Returns Ahead

August 7, 2018
Gary Schnitkey

Corn and soybean returns for high-productivity farms in central Illinois are projected for 2018 and 2019. Corn and soybean prices have declined in recent months, with trade disputes impacting those declines.…

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Weekly Farm Economics

Setting 2019 Cash Rents with Price Uncertainty due to Trade Disputes

August 2, 2018
Gary Schnitkey and Carl Zulauf

Landowners and farmers will soon begin thinking about setting 2019 cash rent levels with the current trade uncertainty as a backdrop to those rental negotiations. The possibility of trade disruptions…

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Weekly Farm Economics

Alternatives for ARC-CO and PLC in 2018 Farm Bill Negotiations: The Case of Corn

July 24, 2018
Gary Schnitkey, Carl Zulauf, Jonathan Coppess, and Nick Paulson

The House and Senate have respectively passed their versions of a 2018 Farm Bill and now a conference committee will attempt to work out differences. Both the House and Senate…

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Weekly Farm Economics

Will Soybean Crop Insurance Payments in 2018 Offset Low Prices?

July 17, 2018
Gary Schnitkey, Bruce Sherrick, and Jonathan Coppess

Trade disputes have roiled commodity markets and created substantial uncertainty about the impact on agricultural exports, especially to China. China’s response to the Administration’s proposed tariffs included tariffs on U.S.…

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Weekly Farm Economics

2018 Income Projections After Recent Price Declines

July 10, 2018
Gary Schnitkey

In recent weeks, cash corn prices have declined by $.50 per bushel and soybean prices by $1.80 per bushel, resulting in much lower 2018 income expectations. Crop revenue and returns…

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Weekly Farm Economics

Has the Era of Decreasing Per Acre Corn Costs Come to an End?

June 21, 2018
Gary Schnitkey

Since 2014, non-land costs of producing corn on high-productivity farmland in central Illinois declined from $617 per acre in 2014 to $569 per acre in 2017, a decrease of $48…

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Weekly Farm Economics

Historic Fertilizer, Seed, and Chemical Costs with 2019 Projections

June 5, 2018
Gary Schnitkey

Fertilizer, seed, and chemical costs represent a sizable portion of the total costs of producing corn. In this article, costs for these three inputs are reported for the years from…

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Weekly Farm Economics

What do $3.80 Corn and $10 Soybean Midpoints Mean for 2018 Crop Revenues?

May 22, 2018
Gary Schnitkey

The World Agriculture Supply and Demand Estimate (WASDE) report contained its first estimates of 2018/2019 supply and use. Midpoints of their market year average (MYA) prices ranges are $3.80 per…

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Weekly Farm Economics

Overwhelming Use of Harvest Price Option Crop Insurances

May 8, 2018
Gary Schnitkey

Over time, farmers have migrated to revenue crop insurance products with the harvest price option (HPO). Today, products with HPO are used on over 90% of the insured acres in…

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Weekly Farm Economics

Have Soybean Yields Increased Relative to Corn Yields in Recent Years?

May 1, 2018
Gary Schnitkey

Soybean yields across much of the Corn Belt have been exceptionally high in recent years, leading to the question of whether soybean yields are increasing relative to corn yields. This…

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Weekly Farm Economics

2018 Acreage Decisions: Steady as She Goes in Rough Waters

April 10, 2018
Gary Schnitkey

The recent release of the Prospective Planting report and the threat of a 25% tariff on U.S. soybean imports to China has resulted in swings in corn and soybean futures…

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Weekly Farm Economics

Cash Rents on Professionally Managed Farmland in 2018 and 2019

March 27, 2018
Gary Schnitkey and Bruce Sherrick

The Illinois Society of Professional Farm Managers and Rural Appraisers recently released their estimates of 2018 cash rents as well as their expectations for 2019 cash rents. Cash rent levels…

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Weekly Farm Economics

Exceptional Corn and Soybean Yields in 2017

March 20, 2018
Gary Schnitkey

Both corn and soybean yields were exceptional in 2017, with the national corn yield being the highest ever and the national soybean yield being the second highest. Recently released county…

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Weekly Farm Economics

Trends in Farm Balance Sheets over Time

March 13, 2018
Gary Schnitkey

Trends in the financial position of Illinois farms are presented in this article. Overall, farms gained financial strength from 2006 to 2012. Since 2012, working capital has declined. The net…

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Weekly Farm Economics

Revised 2018 Corn and Soybean Budgets

February 13, 2018
Gary Schnitkey

Revised 2018 corn and soybean budgets are available in the management section of farmdoc. The major revision was to commodity prices. A $3.60 per bushel corn price and $9.60 per…

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