Spring Revision to 2025 Illinois Crop Budgets

Revisions to 2025 Illinois crop budgets are provided along with updates to return estimates for the 2024 crop year.  The projected corn price for 2025 is lowered from $4.30 to $4.20 while the soybean price is increased $0.05 per bushel to $10.25.  Estimates for the 2024 crop year are updated with reductions in corn and soybean prices, increases in corn and soybean yields, and revisions to various costs.  Estimates for 2024 and projections for 2025 continue to show negative returns to corn and soybean production across all regions of Illinois for cash rented farmland.

Revised 2025 Budgets

Revised crop budgets for corn, soybeans, wheat, and double-crop soybeans are provided in the 2025 Crop Budgets publication in the Management section of farmdoc. Budgets are provided for northern, central, and southern regions in Illinois, with the central region broken out into high-productivity and low-productivity farmland.

The budget revisions and updates to 2024 estimates are also incorporated into the Revenue and Costs for Illinois Grain Crops publication, which reports average yearly revenues, costs, and returns from producing corn, soybeans, wheat, and double-crop soybeans by region of Illinois.  The historical figures from 2018 through 2023 are based on farms enrolled in Illinois Farm Business Farm Management (FBFM), while farmdoc projections are provided for the 2024 and 2025 crop years.

Table 1 summarizes the revised 2025 budgets for corn and soybeans across all Illinois regions (see the farmdoc daily from January 14, 2025 for the winter revision).  Yields are unchanged from the January release and continue to reflect regional trend estimates. The corn price was lowered from $4.30 in January to $4.20 while the soybean price was increased from $10.20 in January to $10.25.  The price adjustments reflect futures prices, fall delivery grain bids, and the USDA’s initial projections for the 2025/26 marketing year average prices from the May WASDE report.

Cost revisions were in the direct cost (input) category and include an increase in fertilizer costs for corn and a slight reduction for soybeans, and slight reductions in pesticide and seed costs for both crops. Minor increases also occurred for power and overhead cost categories.

Land costs, which represent expectations for cash rent levels by region, were revised down relative to the January budgets.  These reductions were made to reflect additional preliminary information about rental rate reductions that occurred for the 2024 crop year, and the assumption that overall return projections have continued to put downward pressure on rents.

Relative to January, return projections for corn declined while soybean return projections improved. Farmer return projections remain negative for both corn and soybeans across all Illinois regions for the 2025 crop year.

Breakeven prices to cover non-land costs range from around $3.25-$3.37 ($6.53-$7.24) for central and northern Illinois on corn (soybean) acres.  Breakeven price to cover non-land costs in southern Illinois are higher at $3.84 for corn and $8.18 for soybeans.  Breakeven prices to cover total costs, using expected cash rent for land costs, increase to around $4.60-$4.65 in northern and central Illinois and $4.78 in southern Illinois for corn.  For soybeans, prices to cover total costs range from $10.87 to $11.26 across regions.

Updated 2024 Estimates

In addition to revision to 2025 budget projections, updated estimates for 2024 crop year returns are also provided.  Table 2 compares 2023 returns to estimates for 2024 and the 2025 budget projections, using the central Illinois, high-productivity region as an example.

Below is a summary list of the notable changes made to the 2024 estimates relative to the January 2025 release:

• Lowered the corn price from $4.25 to $4.10; lowered the soybean price from $10.20 to $10.15.
• Increased corn and soybean yields based on information released since January, primarily USDA-NASS county yield estimates and preliminary estimates from Illinois FBFM.
• Revised estimates for projected ARC/PLC payments for 2024 based on NASS county yields estimates.
• Revised crop insurance proceed estimates based on data currently available from the Risk Management Agency (RMA) and expectations for potential payments from the supplemental area plans (Supplemental and Enhanced Coverage Options).
• Higher direct costs. For corn, fertilizer costs were higher than anticipated.  Crop insurance premium expenditures were also higher for both crops, which potentially suggests more use of supplemental products such as the Enhanced Coverage Option (ECO) in 2025.
• Slightly higher power costs for corn.
• Reduction in land costs (cash rents).

Net farmer return estimates for 2024 generally declined for corn and improved for soybeans, but remain negative for both crops across all regions of Illinois. Note that the Emergency Commodity Assistance Program (ECAP) payments, which provided $43 per acre for corn and $30 per acre for soybean and wheat, are being included in 2024 returns (see farmdoc daily articles from January 7 and March 25, 2025 for further discussion of the ECAP).  While the EA payments did not begin to be received by farmers until March of 2025, they are associated with economic losses that occurred with the 2024 crops.  The 2024 return estimates would be considerably lower without the support from the ECAP payments.

Summary

Low commodity prices relative to production cost levels remain a challenge for corn and soybean producers in 2025.  If current projections play out, farmers will be dealing with the third consecutive year of average negative returns to cash rented farmland.  Moreover, the operator and land returns (returns before land costs are considered) projected for 2025 remain below expected cash rent levels (see figure 1).

While farmers are experienced in dealing with volatility, the severity of the negative returns in 2023, estimated for 2024, and projected for 2025 is significant from a historical perspective.  Financial positions, which were strong, on average, at the end of 2023 due to high incomes for the 2021 and 2022 crops years are being eroded quickly in the current return environment.  Younger producers, who tend to be more reliant on rented land and more highly leveraged than more experienced farmers, will be the most vulnerable to the ongoing financial struggles facing corn and soybean producers.

Acknowledgment

The authors would like to acknowledge that data used in this article comes from Illinois Farm Business Farm Management (FBFM) Associations across the state.  Without their cooperation, information as comprehensive and accurate as this would not be available for educational purposes.  FBFM, which consists of 5,000 plus farmers and 65 plus professional field staff, is a not-for-profit organization available to all farm operators in Illinois.  FBFM field staff provide on-farm counsel with recordkeeping, farm financial management, business entity planning and income tax management.  For more information, please contact the State FBFM Office located at the University of Illinois Department of Agricultural and Consumer Economics at 217-333-5511 or visit the FBFM website at www.fbfm.org.