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Weekly Farm Economics

Estimates of 2024 ARC-CO and PLC Payments

November 11, 2025
farmdoc daily (15):208
Recommended citation format: Paulson, N., G. Schnitkey, J. Coppess, C. Zulauf and H. Monaco. "Estimates of 2024 ARC-CO and PLC Payments." farmdoc daily (15):208, Department of Agricultural and Consumer Economics, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, November 11, 2025. Permalink

Support from the Price Loss Coverage (PLC) and Agriculture Risk Coverage, county option (ARC-CO) programs for the 2024 crop year are currently being processed and distributed by the Farm Service Agency. Payments from PLC are expected to be triggered for peanut and seed cotton base acres enrolled in that program, while ARC-CO payments are expected in many counties for base acres of most crops if they were enrolled ARC-CO. Total PLC and ARC-CO support for 2024 is estimated to approach $2.6 billion for 2024, with 89% of total payments from ARC-CO.

Estimated PLC and ARC-CO Payments for 2024

Estimates of PLC and ARC-CO program payments by covered commodity are provided in Table 1. Total PLC and ARC-CO payments are estimated to be $2.587 billion for 2024.  These payment estimates account for the 85% payment factor but were not adjusted for any applicable sequestration.

PLC payments are estimated to be triggered for just two covered commodities for 2024 – peanuts and seed cotton.  Total PLC outlays are estimates at just under $295 million.  Peanut base acres enrolled in PLC are estimated to receive an average payment rate of $19.74 per base acre, totaling $45 million in outlays.  PLC payments to seed cotton are estimated to be nearly $250 million, or an average payment rate of $44.32 per base acre.

ARC-CO payments for the 2024 crop year are estimated to reach nearly $2.3 billion.  ARC-CO payments on corn base acres are estimated to be nearly $1.3 billion (national average payment rate of $18.28 per base acre).  ARC-CO payments for enrolled soybean base are estimated at $618 million (average payment rate of $13.04 per base acre).  Payments for wheat are estimated to be nearly $154 million ($5.02 national average payment rate per base acre). As is usual, ARC-CO payments are estimated to be triggered in some counties for nearly all covered commodities.  Exceptions include crambe, rapeseed, and safflower. ARC-CO county-level payment rates for each commodity vary considerably from the national averages reported in Table 1.  Payments on corn and soybean base acres are discussed further below.

Table titled 'Estimated PLC and ARC-CO Payments by Commodity for 2024' with three main column groups: PLC, ARC-CO, and Total. Each group contains Base Acres, Payment/Acre, and Payments subcolumns. The table lists 22 commodities including barley, chickpeas, corn, soybeans, wheat, and others. PLC shows minimal payments (only peanuts and seed cotton received payments), while ARC-CO shows substantial payments across multiple commodities. Total payments across all commodities: $2.59 billion, with soybeans receiving the highest total payment at $618 million, followed by corn at $1.3 billion. The table shows 241.65 million total base acres.

Corn

Estimated ARC-CO payments are based on a $4.24 per bushel MYA price for 2024, which is 12.6% below the 2024 ARC-CO benchmark price of $4.85. ARC-CO payments for corn in 2024 occur in counties with final county yields that are 2% or more below the county’s 2024 ARC-CO benchmark yield.

Table 2 reports ARC-CO payment estimates for corn for states with at least 500,000 base acres enrolled in ARC-CO for 2024.  ARC-CO payments for corn in Minnesota total more than $373 million, with payments averaging nearly $50 per base acre.  Total ARC-CO payments for corn are estimated to exceed $100 million in Wisconsin, Nebraska, and Iowa.  Average payment rates per acre exceed the national average of $18.28 per acre in the Midwest states of Minnesota, Nebraska, Wisconsin, Ohio, Kentucky, and Kansas as well as many states outside the primary production region for corn in the US.  Average payment rates are below the national average in many of the major corn producing states such as Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Missouri, Michigan, and both North and South Dakota.

Table titled 'Estimated 2024 ARC-CO Payments by State, Corn' with four columns: State, ARC-CO Base Acres, ARC-CO Payments, and Payment per Base Acre. Lists 20 states plus an 'Other States' category. Minnesota leads in payment per base acre at $49.70, followed by Tennessee ($45.29) and North Carolina ($45.20). Iowa has the highest total base acres (13.54 million) and total payments ($180.56 million). The national total shows 70.91 million base acres receiving $1.3 billion in payments, averaging $18.28 per base acre.

Figure 1 illustrates estimated ARC-CO payment rates for corn at the county-level across the U.S. Corn yields above trend levels in most counties in the Corn Belt states of Iowa, Missouri, Illinois and Indiana result in few payments. Counties outside the Corn Belt states of Iowa, Illinois, and Indiana are where payments are more common and larger in size on a per acre basis.

Choropleth map of the United States showing estimated 2024 ARC-CO payment rates for corn by county. Counties are shaded in blue gradients ranging from white/gray (0 dollars per base acre) to dark blue (80+ dollars per base acre).

Soybeans

Estimated ARC-CO payments for soybeans are based on a $10.00 per bushel MYA price for 2024, which is 10% below the 2024 ARC-CO benchmark price of $11.12. ARC-CO payments for soybeans in 2024 occur in counties with final county yields that are 4% or more below the county’s 2024 ARC-CO benchmark yield.

Table 3 reports ARC-CO payment estimates for soybeans for states with at least 500,000 base acres enrolled in ARC-CO for 2024. Average payment rates are above the national average of $13.04 in the Midwest states of Minnesota, Ohio, South Dakota, Kansas, Kentucky, and Wisconsin as well as in Mississippi, and Tennessee. Average payment rates in Arkansas, Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Michigan, Missouri, Nebraska, and North Dakota are below the national average.

Table titled 'Estimated 2024 ARC-CO Payments by State, Soybeans' with four columns: State, ARC-CO Base Acres, ARC-CO Payments, and Payment per Base Acre. Lists 17 states plus an 'Other States' category. Minnesota leads in payment per base acre at $25.71, followed by Ohio ($27.73) and Tennessee ($27.82). Minnesota also has the highest total payments ($142.37 million) and highest base acres (5.54 million). The national total shows 47.38 million base acres receiving $618 million in payments, averaging $13.04 per base acre.

Figure 2 illustrates estimated ARC-CO payment rates for soybeans at the county-level across the U.S. Similar to corn, payments are not triggered in most counties across Iowa, Illinois and Indiana.  Yields were sufficiently below trend to trigger payments in many counties with soybean base acres outside of the Corn Belt region.

Choropleth map of the United States showing estimated 2024 ARC-CO payment rates for soybeans by county. Counties are shaded in green gradients ranging from white/gray (0 dollars per base acre) to dark green (50+ dollars per base acre).

Discussion

Commodity program support for the 2024 crop year will be provided from both the PLC and ARC programs.  FSA is currently processing and issuing ARC and PLC payments to producers with enrolled based acres. PLC payments are expected for enrolled peanut and seed cotton base acres.  ARC-CO payments will occur for some counties for most covered commodities.  For corn and soybeans, ARC-CO payments will occur for counties where final FSA county yields are 2% and 4% below county benchmark yields, respectively. Counties triggering payments on corn and soybean base tend to be outside the Corn Belt states of Iowa, Illinois, and Indiana.

Total ARC and PLC support is estimated to approach $2.6 billion.  This is in addition to the $10 billion in Emergency Commodity Assistance Program (ECAP) payments and the 2024 portion of $20 billion in disaster assistance authorized through the American Relief Act of 2025 being issued through the Emergency Livestock Relief and Supplemental Disaster Relief Programs (ELRP and SDRP), and net support through the federal crop insurance program (for more discussion on 2024 crop year assistance see the farmdoc daily article from October 16, 2025).

Margins are projected to continue to be tight, and in many cases negative, for major row crop producers for 2024, 2025, and 2026. Support from the ARC and PLC programs, as well as the ad hoc assistance provided through ECAP, ELRP, and SDRP, should be considered as the Trump administration and Congress continue to consider additional rounds of ad hoc assistance for producers for 2025. A primary concern with additional substantial payments is their potential role in contributing to even higher production costs for producers.

Next week we plan to provide estimates of 2025 ARC and PLC program support for the larger acreage commodities following the anticipated release of the November WASDE report coming up on Friday November 14th.

Data Note

Payment estimates are based on the following data items available from the Farm Service Agency’s ARC and PLC Data website:

  • Finalized 2024 MYA prices for wheat, barley, oats, peanuts, dry peas, lentils, canola, flaxseed, and rapeseed.
  • Projected 2024 MYA prices (as of September 12, 2025) for crambe, sesame seed, seed cotton, and all rice types.
  • Published county-level average PLC yields (for PLC payments) and 2024 county-level yields determined by FSA (for ARC-CO payments).
  • County-level base acreage enrollment by commodity by program (ARC-CO and PLC) for 2024
  • Effective references prices (for PLC) and published county-level benchmark revenues (for ARC-CO).

The 2024 MYA prices for corn, soybeans, sorghum, chickpeas (large and small), sunflower seed, mustard seed, and safflower were obtained from the National Ag Statistics Service (NASS) quickstats database as of November 10, 2025.

References

Zulauf, C., J. Coppess, N. Paulson and G. Schnitkey. "2024 Crop Safety Net Payments: Performance of Contemporary Ad Hoc Assistance." farmdoc daily (15):191, Department of Agricultural and Consumer Economics, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, October 16, 2025.

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