Collected Publications for May 2017 • farmdoc daily

Weekly Farm Economics

Modest Income Levels Projected for Grain Farms in 2017

May 31, 2017
Gary Schnitkey

In recent weeks, soybean prices have decreased, causing prospects for 2017 net incomes to decrease as well. At current fall-time delivery prices and trend yields, 2017 net incomes on grain…

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Weekly Outlook

Chronology of a Sideways Corn Market

May 30, 2017
Darrel Good

Expectations for the magnitude of supply, consumption, and ending stocks for the 2017-18 U.S. corn marketing year have remained remarkably stable for the past several months. As a result, futures…

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How Hard is it to be Above Average in Farming?

May 26, 2017
Gary Schnitkey, Nick Paulson, and Dale Lattz

Returns to farms vary from one year to next due to variation in prices, yields, and costs. Within a year, some farms will have higher returns than others. Over time,…

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Gardner Policy Series

Economies of Size in Producing Milk and U.S. Dairy Policy: A Key Relationship

May 25, 2017
Carl Zulauf

Cotton and dairy have dominated early discussions of the next U.S. farm bill, often involving pointed debate. Seven farmdoc daily articles have examined cotton. This article examines dairy. The underlying…

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When Should We Start Paying Attention to Crop Condition Ratings for Corn and Soybeans?

May 24, 2017
Scott Irwin and Darrel Good

The USDA will report crop condition ratings for the 2017 U.S corn and soybean crops in the 18 major producing states in the weekly Crop Progress report beginning May 30…

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Weekly Farm Economics

Still too Early to Say Much About Illinois Corn Yields

May 23, 2017
Gary Schnitkey

Planting conditions in Illinois have been less than ideal in 2017. Rains have delayed planting in some areas. Cool and wet weather has led to emergence problems and hard-to-make replant…

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Weekly Outlook

Summer Pricing for Corn and Soybeans

May 22, 2017
Todd Hubbs

Recent corn and soybean price declines associated with the political situation in Brazil erased the slight gains since the release of the March 31 Prospective Planting report. The sudden drop…

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The Deferred Tax Monster

May 19, 2017
Brandy Krapf, Dwight Raab, Bradley Zwilling and Bailey Fletcher

Because agriculture producers can use cash accounting for federal and state income tax purposes, there is a recognizable difference between taxable farm income and accrual farm income. These differences can…

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Gardner Policy Series

Generic Base’s Impact on Planted U.S. Acres: A Multi-Commodity Perspective

May 18, 2017
Carl Zulauf, Gary Schnitkey, Nick Paulson, and Jonathan Coppess

This article continues discussion of cotton support, a key contemporary farm policy issue. Cotton is not a covered commodity under the ARC (Agriculture Risk Coverage) and PLC (Price Loss Coverage)…

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2017 First Quarter RIN Update

May 17, 2017
Nick Paulson

Today's article provides the first quarterly update on RIN generation for 2017. Generation figures and projections are based on available data from EPA's EMTS through March of 2017, with annual…

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Weekly Farm Economics

2016 Crop Insurance Performance: A Very Low Loss Year

May 16, 2017
Gary Schnitkey

Very low crop insurance payments were made in 2016, resulting in a .27 loss ratio for all policies in the Federal program. Summary of Business data is available from the…

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Weekly Outlook

2017-18 Market Prospects for Corn and Soybeans

May 15, 2017
Todd Hubbs

In the May 10 WASDE report, the USDA released the first projections for U.S. corn and soybean supply and demand in the 2017-18 marketing year. While the projections on crop…

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Cattle Finishing Net Returns in 2017 – A Bit Different from a Year Ago

May 12, 2017
Michael Langemeier

With the exception of May 2016, monthly fed cattle net returns were negative from December 2014 through November 2016. As noted here, prospects for 2017 appear much brighter. This article…

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Gardner Policy Series

Farm Safety Net Support for Cotton in Perspective

May 11, 2017
Carl Zulauf, Gary Schnitkey, Jonathan Coppess and Nick Paulson

As discussed in several articles over the last year, support for cotton is a key contemporary farm policy issue. These articles have discussed various aspects of the issue but have…

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What’s Driving the Non-Linear Trend in U.S. Average Soybean Yields?

May 10, 2017
Scott Irwin , Todd Hubbs, and Darrel Good

In the farmdoc daily articles of April 19, 2017 and May 3, 2017 we began to address the potential reasons behind the observation that U.S. average soybean yields in 2014,…

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Weekly Farm Economics

Late Planting in 2017

May 9, 2017
Gary Schnitkey

Recent wet, cool weather has raised concerns about delays in planting, which could then lead to a switch in planting from corn to soybeans. From an economics standpoint, the decision…

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Weekly Outlook

Updating Corn and Soybean Export Pace

May 8, 2017
Todd Hubbs

As the focus of corn and soybean markets turns to 2017 prospects for production, the pace of old crop corn and soybean consumption carries implications for carryover stocks into the…

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Assessing and Managing Strategic Risk

May 5, 2017
Michael Boehlje and Michael Langemeier

There are numerous ways to classify risk. One useful taxonomy is to categorize risk as either operational risk or strategic risk. Operational risk is composed of business and financial risk.…

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Gardner Policy Series

Historical Background on the Conservation Reserve Program

May 4, 2017
Jonathan Coppess

Congress continues work on the next farm bill and the House Ag Committee recently reviewed conservation programs. A central topic of that hearing, as well as the ongoing discussion about…

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U.S. Soybean Yield Trends for Irrigated and Non-Irrigated Production

May 3, 2017
Scott Irwin , Todd Hubbs, and Darrel Good

Very high U.S average soybean yields that were well above the long-term linear trend values (calculated beginning in 1960) in each of the last three years continues to be somewhat…

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Weekly Farm Economics

Areas of Above and Below Trend Yields in the Corn-Belt: These Areas Will Change

May 2, 2017
Gary Schnitkey

Since 2012, many areas in the greater Midwest had county corn and soybean yields that have exceeded trend yields by a large margin. These areas include much of Illinois, southern…

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Weekly Outlook

NAFTA Trade Is Important for Meat Industry

May 1, 2017
James Mintert

The 2016 election cycle created a lot of confusion about the importance and benefits of trade in general. In particular, a good bit of the election year rhetoric focused on…

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