Collected Publications for Todd Hubbs • farmdoc daily

Weekly Outlook

Record Corn Yield Forecast Weakens Corn Prices

September 17, 2018
Todd Hubbs

The USDA crop production report released last Wednesday led to a drop in corn prices as a record yield forecast surprised the market. The December corn futures price dropped to…

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Weekly Outlook

Soybean Exports since the Onset of Tariffs

September 10, 2018
Todd Hubbs

The evolving developments with tariffs between the U.S. and China continue to influence the outlook for soybean prices. The relationship between U.S. and competitor export prices along with the changing…

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Weekly Outlook

Will the 2018 Corn Crop Get Smaller?

September 4, 2018
Todd Hubbs

December corn prices approached contract lows not seen since the second week of July as August ended. The continued weakness in corn prices persists despite 2018-19 marketing year projections of…

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Weekly Outlook

Tough Marketing Decisions for New Crop Soybeans

August 20, 2018
Todd Hubbs

November soybean futures prices dropped significantly after the release of the August USDA reports. The November futures price closed at $8.93 on August 17, higher last week on the news…

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Weekly Outlook

Large Corn and Soybean Yield Forecasts Hurt Price Prospects

August 13, 2018
Todd Hubbs

The USDA August Crop Production report contained larger than expected forecasts for the 2018 U.S. corn and soybean crops. At 178.4 bushels per acre and 51.6 bushels per acre respectively,…

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Weekly Outlook

Soybean Consumption and Yield Potential

August 6, 2018
Todd Hubbs

Soybean prices continue to reflect excellent crop conditions and uncertainty regarding trade. Soybean crush and export consumption over the last two months shows an uptick in soybean use. The USDA…

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Weekly Outlook

2017-18 Corn Consumption Finishing Strong

July 30, 2018
Todd Hubbs

While discussion of trade issues and the potential for new crop yield continue to dominate the market outlook for corn, the low corn prices seen over the last couple of…

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Weekly Outlook

Soybean and Corn Export Outlook

July 16, 2018
Todd Hubbs

The escalating trade issues between the U.S. and many of our trading partners continue to affect the outlook in both corn and soybean markets. Drastic price declines since Memorial Day…

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Weekly Outlook

Implications of USDA Reports for Corn and Soybeans

July 2, 2018
Todd Hubbs

On June 29, the USDA released the Acreage and Grain Stocks reports. The reports provided little support for corn and soybean prices. Trade policy and weather developments look to dictate corn…

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Measuring the Accuracy of Forecasting Corn and Soybean Yield with Good and Excellent Crop Condition Ratings

June 27, 2018
Scott Irwin and Todd Hubbs

Recent crop condition ratings continue to provide support to the notion of excellent yield potential for corn and soybeans this year. Previous farmdoc daily articles have emphasized the limited information…

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Weekly Outlook

Anticipating June 1 Corn Stocks

June 25, 2018
Todd Hubbs

As trade issues continue to inject uncertainty into commodity markets, the USDA reports due for release on June 29 look to impart additional data on corn demand and supply moving…

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Does the Bias in Early Season Crop Condition Ratings for Corn and Soybeans Vary with the Magnitude of the Ratings?

June 20, 2018
Scott Irwin and Todd Hubbs

The strong start to the growing season, as indicated by 79 percent of the U.S. corn crop and 73 percent of U.S. soybean crop rated in good or excellent condition…

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Weekly Outlook

Is Corn Oversold?

June 18, 2018
Todd Hubbs

A combination of trade uncertainty and a strong start to the growing season led corn prices to tumble lower last week. The sharp selloff in the corn market occurred despite…

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What to Make of High Early Season Crop Condition Ratings for Soybeans

June 14, 2018
Scott Irwin and Todd Hubbs

The USDA’s first condition rating on June 3, 2018 indicated that 75 percent of the U.S. soybean crop was rated in good or excellent condition. In conjunction with trade issues,…

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What to Make of High Early Season Crop Condition Ratings for Corn?

June 13, 2018
Scott Irwin and Todd Hubbs

The USDA's first condition rating on May 27, 2018 indicated that 79 percent of the U.S. corn crop was rated in good or excellent condition. This information has undoubtedly contributed…

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Weekly Outlook

Soybeans under Pressure

June 11, 2018
Todd Hubbs

Soybean prices continued to move lower last week as trade issues and a strong start to the growing season continue to pressure prices. At this time, very little positive news…

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Weekly Outlook

Export Potential for Corn, Ethanol, and Distillers Grains

May 29, 2018
Todd Hubbs

The prospect of substantial levels of corn, ethanol, and distillers’ grains exports bodes well for corn consumption this marketing year, but a lack of resolution to trade negotiations may provide…

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Weekly Outlook

Soybean Prices Focus on Trade and Weather

May 21, 2018
Todd Hubbs

Soybean prices moved lower last week despite the positive outlook in the USDA's May WASDE report. The report, released on May 9, projected that stocks of U.S. soybeans at the…

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Weekly Outlook

2018-19 Market Outlook for Corn and Soybeans

May 14, 2018
Todd Hubbs

The USDA released the first projections for U.S. corn and soybean supply and demand in the 2018-19 marketing year on May 10. Forecasts for both crops indicate lower ending stocks…

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Weekly Outlook

Soybean Crush Continues Strength

May 7, 2018
Todd Hubbs

Soybean crush levels picked up substantially over the last few months due to strong crush margins. Driven by production issues in Argentina, the increase in crush margin recently is attributed…

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Prospects for Timely Planting of the 2018 Soybean Crop

May 2, 2018
Scott Irwin and Todd Hubbs

In a farmdoc daily article on April 25, 2018, we examined the prospects for timely planting of the U.S. corn crop in 2018. Our computations indicated that there was still…

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Prospects for Timely Planting of the 2018 Corn Crop

April 25, 2018
Scott Irwin and Todd Hubbs

It is generally acknowledged that the U.S. average corn yield is largely determined by weather conditions during the reproductive and grain filling stages during the summer months. Still, weather conditions…

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Weekly Outlook

Is Corn Setting Up for a Rally?

April 23, 2018
Todd Hubbs

Corn futures prices moved lower last week despite the slow pace of corn planting thus far this year. High levels of corn consumption continue to peck away at the corn…

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How Many Days Does It Take to Plant the U.S. Corn Crop?

April 19, 2018
Scott Irwin and Todd Hubbs

Corn planting progress in the U.S. is always a staple of market conversations this time of year. The cold and wet conditions (snow!) in the Corn Belt during the first…

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Gardner Policy Series

Impacts of Chinese Soybean Tariffs on Financial Position of Central Illinois Grain Farms

April 17, 2018
Krista Swanson, Gary Schnitkey, Todd Hubbs, Jonathan Coppess, Nick Paulson and Carl Zulauf

Recent events suggest a possibility that China will place a 25% tariff on soybean exports from the United States to China. Such a tariff would result in lower soybean prices…

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